We propose a simple theory for the dynamics of model glass-forming fluids, which should be solvable using a mean-field-like approach. The theory is based on transparent physical assumptions, which can be tested in computer simulations. The theory predicts an ergodicity-breaking transition that is identical to the so-called dynamic transition predicted within the replica approach. Thus, it can provide the missing dynamic component of the random first order transition framework. In the large-dimensional limit the theory reproduces the result of a recent exact calculation of Maimbourg et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 015902 (2016)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.116.015902]. Our approach provides an alternative, physically motivated derivation of this result.