Break it Down: An Alternative Approach to Measuring Effectiveness in Counterterrorism

Abstract

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Understanding Terrorism in the Age of Global Media

“…His words raised the issue of how to make sense of both material indicators and the effects of perceptions. There is widespread recognition that there is a problem with material indicators (Walker 2005;Stohl 2006;Perl 2007;van Dongen 2009;De Graaf 2011;van Um and Pisoiu 2011). For example, Perl (2007: 10) points out that policy makers often tend to define success by the absence of attacks ... .…”

Dealing with uncertainty: the illusion of knowledge in the study of counterterrorism effectiveness

“…In most cases, the effect of a policy measure remains probabilistic, since the actual reason for an observed effect may be a number of other factors and not the actual CT measure (cf. Perl 2007;Probst 2005;Spencer 2006;Stohl 2006;Van Dongen 2009). Wilner (2010), for example, studied certain indicators of CT effectiveness before and after targeted assassinations in Afghanistan had taken place, including the overall level of terrorist attacks, the rate of failures and the sophistication of attacks.…”

The effectiveness of surveillance technology: What intelligence officials are saying

“…There is a significant body of work on evaluation of the effectiveness of counterterrorism measures. Lum et al (2007), van Dongen (2009), and van Um and Pisoiu (2011) identify the numerous challenges of performing an effectiveness evaluation, propose approaches to measuring effectiveness, and underline the lack of research in this field. Drakos and Giannakopoulos (2009) establish a formal statistical framework to determine the probability of authorities stopping a terrorist incident over time and the probability of human and property loss.…”