Abstract:We investigated the predictability of the Brazilian exchange rate at High Frequency (1, 5 and 15 minutes), using local and global economic variables as predictors. In addition to the Linear Regression method, we use Machine Learning algorithms such as Ridge, Lasso, Elastic Net, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting. When considering contemporary predictors, it is possible to outperform the Random Walk at all frequencies, with local economic variables having greater predictive power than global ones. Machine Lear… Show more
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