Box modeling of the Eastern Mediterranean sea

Abstract

In ∼1990 a new source of deep water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean was found in the southern part of the Aegean sea. Till then, the only source of deep water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean was in the Adriatic sea; the rate of the deep water formation of the new Aegean source is 1 Sv, three times larger than the Adriatic source. We develop a simple three box-model to study the stability of the thermohaline circulation of the Eastern Mediterranean sea. The three boxes represent the Adriatic sea, Aegean sea, and the Ionian seas. The boxes exchange heat and salinity and may be described by a set of nonlinear differential equations. We analyze these equations and find that the system may have one, two, or four stable flux states. We conjecture that the change in the deep water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean sea is attributed to a switch between the different states on the thermohaline circulation; this switch may result from decreased temperature and/or increased salinity over the Aegean sea.

Unexpected Covariant Behavior of the Aegean and Ionian Seas in the Period 1987–2008 by Means of a Nondimensional Sea Surface Height Index

“…These final results support the idea that the reversals observed in the period 1987–2008 reflect the existence of multiple equilibrium states in MTHC in the EMED and that Adriatic‐Ionian‐Aegean Sea system behaves like a coupled system (Amitai et al, ; Ashkenazy et al, ; Crisciani & Mosetti, ; Reale et al, ; Theocharis et al, ).…”

“…Thus, the observed reversals are consistent with the hypothesis of the existence of multiple equilibrium states in the MHTC (Amitai et al, ; Ashkenazy et al, ; Theocharis et al, ) and then they can be explained only taking into account a fully coupled Adriatic‐Ionian‐Aegean system (Crisciani & Mosetti, ; Reale et al, ).…”

“…The appearance of EMT has suggested the possibility of existence of multiple equilibrium states in the MHTC (Amitai et al, ; Ashkenazy et al, ). The transition between different states has been shown (through box models and idealized experiments) to be triggered by density differences between the Southern Adriatic and Aegean Seas and, in particular, has been associated with increasing (decreasing) salinity (temperature) over Aegean Sea (Amitai et al, ; Ashkenazy et al, ).…”

“…The appearance of EMT has suggested the possibility of existence of multiple equilibrium states in the MHTC (Amitai et al, ; Ashkenazy et al, ). The transition between different states has been shown (through box models and idealized experiments) to be triggered by density differences between the Southern Adriatic and Aegean Seas and, in particular, has been associated with increasing (decreasing) salinity (temperature) over Aegean Sea (Amitai et al, ; Ashkenazy et al, ). Recent studies (Beuvier et al, ; Mihanović et al, ; Theocharis et al, ; Velaoras et al, ) identified three past events sharing with EMT the shift of deep waters formation from the Southern Adriatic to Aegean Sea but not the overall volume of deep waters formed: one at end of 1950s, one between 1962 and 1965 and one toward the end of 1970s.…”

Venice and I: How a City Can Determine the Fate of a Career

“…The final, intriguing possibility is that multiple equilibria exist for the eastern Mediterranean thermohaline cell. Because of the eastern Mediterranean's short renewal time (Roether & Schlitzer 1991), it was possible to observe the Eastern Mediterranean Transient, which, in this scenario, would then lead to a different equilibrium state of the basin (Ashkenazy et al 2012). …”