Bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Northern Ireland: epidemiological observations 1988-1990

Denny, G. O.; Wilesmith, J. W.; Clements, Randolph; Hueston, William D.

doi:10.1136/vr.130.6.113

Cited by 14 publications

(13 citation statements)

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“…By 1 January 1997 there had been 1746 BSE cases in Northern Ireland (NI). The course of the NI epidemic to date has been described by Denny et al (1992) and Denny & Heuston (1997). The herd of NI is much smaller than that of GB but has shown the same trend of declining size over the last 20 years.…”

Section: (I ) Demographic Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. II. Model construction and analysis of transmission dynamics

Ferguson

Donnelly

Woolhouse

et al. 1997

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B

126

145

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SUMMARYMathematical models that describe the key processes determining the pattern of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in British cattle are derived that allow for infection from feed as well as maternal and direct horizontal transmission. Heterogeneous susceptibility classes are also incorporated into the analysis. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate parameters and to obtain confidence intervals from available experimental and epidemiological data. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis of all model parameters and distributional assumptions is presented. Additional validation is provided by fitting the model to independent data collected in Northern Ireland. Model estimates and predictions based on BSE case data for Great Britain and Northern Ireland, together with their implications, are reviewed, and future research priorities discussed.

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Section: (I ) Demographic Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. II. Model construction and analysis of transmission dynamics

Ferguson

Donnelly

Woolhouse

et al. 1997

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B

126

145

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“…This lag could have resulted from later initial infections in NI compared to GB, but could also re£ect the six month interval between the introduction of the bans on the use of ruminant protein in ruminant feed in GB and NI (July 1988 andJanuary 1989, respectively). The epidemiology of BSE in NI has been described in detail in Denny et al (1992) and Denny & Hueston (1997).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

BSE in Northern Ireland: epidemiological patterns past, present and future

Ferguson

Ghani

Donnelly

et al. 1998

Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B

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patterns in the NI epidemic reveals signi¢cant clustering of cases in herds and counties. The observed clustering of cases within herds results in lower per capita incidence of BSE in previously una¡ected herds, providing support for the introduction of a certi¢ed herd scheme in NI. By ¢tting a backcalculation model to the case data, we can estimate the number of animals infected with the aetiological agent of BSE and project the number of future cases. We predict that the epidemic will decline rapidly, with approximately 99 cases (95% con¢dence interval: 30, 504) occurring in the ¢ve year period 1997^2001.

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“…A database containing data on all confirmed BSE cases in Northern Ireland is maintained by DANI staff. The epidemiology of BSE in Northern Ireland has been described in detail in Denny et al (1992) , Denny and Hueston (1997), and Ferguson et al (1998) . The BSE epidemic in Northern Ireland provides a unique opportunity to compare the epidemiologic patterns of BSE observed in Great Britain with an independently collected data set.…”

Section: The Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of the BSE Epidemic in British Cattle

1999

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Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was first diagnosed in British cattle in 1986. The infectious agents of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) diseases are believed to be infectious proteins or prions. They can remain infectious despite exposures to disinfectants, autoclaving, radiation, and ultraviolet light. TSEs affect animals as well as humans and are characterized by progressively severe psychomotor dysfunction and long incubation periods. As of August 27, 1999, 175,404 cases of BSE have been confirmed in Great Britain with 1,787 additional confirmed cases in Northern Ireland (as of August 31, 1999). Mathematical and statistical analyses of the BSE epidemic data suggest that the incidence of BSE in Great Britain and Northern Ireland will continue its rapid decline. Evidence relating to maternal and horizontal transmission of BSE is discussed. Public concern remains focused on the probable link between BSE infection in cattle and a new variant of Creutzfeldt‐Jakob Disease (vCJD) in humans, another TSE. Given the long and variable incubation periods associated with TSEs, and a possible genetic component, the eventual magnitude of this human epidemic remains uncertain.

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Bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Northern Ireland: epidemiological observations 1988-1990

Cited by 14 publications

References 0 publications

The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. II. Model construction and analysis of transmission dynamics

The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. II. Model construction and analysis of transmission dynamics

BSE in Northern Ireland: epidemiological patterns past, present and future

A Review of the BSE Epidemic in British Cattle

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