Bounding the moment deficit rate on crustal faults using geodetic data: Methods

Maurer, J.; Segall, P.; Bradley, Andrew M.

doi:10.1002/2017jb014300

Cited by 10 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 61 publications

(108 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The COBE method, presented in Maurer et al (), solves the following system:

\begin{matrix} right p ({\dot{M}}_{test} | {boldV}_{r}; Σ) & left & right \equiv \max_{\dot{bolds}} lik ({boldV}_{r} | \dot{bolds}; Σ) \\ right s.t. & left & right {bolda}^{T} \dot{bolds} = {\dot{M}}_{test} & left \\ right and & left & right 0 \leq \dot{bolds} \leq {\dot{bolds}}_{\infty} \end{matrix}

or equivalently

\begin{matrix} right p ({\dot{M}}_{test} | {boldV}_{r}; Σ) & left \equiv \max_{\dot{bolds}} lik ({boldV}_{r} | \dot{bolds}; Σ) p_{scriptU} (\dot{bolds}; 0, {\dot{bolds}}_{\infty}) & right \\ right s.t. {bolda}^{T} \dot{bolds} & left = {\dot{M}}_{test}, \end{matrix}

where

\overset{s}{true}

is the vector of SDRs on each fault patch and

p_{U} false(\cdot; bold0, {\overset{s}{true}}_{\infty} false)

is the uniform PDF over SDR; that is, we assume that back slip is bounded between zero and the long‐term rate

{\overset{s}{true}}_{\infty}

. Note that it is not possible to solve for the long‐term slip rates with this method; instead, these must be supplied from geologic bounds on slip rate or, in our case, from geodetic estimates of steady state block motions constrained by geologic rates.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A Bayesian probabilistic approach cannot be applied to estimate MDR as defined in equation when bounds on slip are present due to mesh dependence in the solution. See Maurer et al () for more details.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As discussed in Maurer et al (), the COBE PDF is a conservative estimate of the uncertainty in MDR related to noisy data and the model null space. COBE does not model or include the prediction errors or epistemic uncertainty, for example, relating to the block model assumptions and geometry and assumed rheology.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Bounding the Moment Deficit Rate on Crustal Faults Using Geodetic Data: Application to Southern California

2018

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The interseismic moment deficit rate (MDR) constrains the potential for future moment release in earthquakes. Published estimates of the geodetic MDR in Southern California vary by a factor of 3 depending on the type of forward model, method of estimation, and data quality. It is our aim to determine to what degree these discrepancies may be explained by quantifying the uncertainty for a given class of forward models, accounting for data errors and limited model resolution. We apply a new method, the Constrained Optimization Bounding Estimator, to bound the MDR in Southern California using geodetic data and an elastic plate‐block model. Total MDR ranges from 1.3 to 2.0 × 1019 N m/yr, equivalent to one MW 8.17–8.31 over 160 years, higher than the observed seismic moment since 1850. This observation, together with published estimates of off‐fault moment rate, could imply that significant permanent (inelastic) deformation is taking place in Southern California or that future earthquakes will make up the difference. Uncertainty in MDR from Constrained Optimization Bounding Estimator using a single model is comparable to the range of published MDR estimates using elastic block models but about a factor of 8 smaller than the range of all published models. Thus, the choice of forward model dominates theuncertainty in MDR for Southern California. While additional data would be helpful for constraining the MDR, as much or more effort is needed to quantify the prediction errors associated with a given model and to develop observations that narrow the possible range of forward models under consideration.

show abstract

“…The COBE method, presented in Maurer et al (), solves the following system:

\begin{matrix} right p ({\dot{M}}_{test} | {boldV}_{r}; Σ) & left & right \equiv \max_{\dot{bolds}} lik ({boldV}_{r} | \dot{bolds}; Σ) \\ right s.t. & left & right {bolda}^{T} \dot{bolds} = {\dot{M}}_{test} & left \\ right and & left & right 0 \leq \dot{bolds} \leq {\dot{bolds}}_{\infty} \end{matrix}

or equivalently

\begin{matrix} right p ({\dot{M}}_{test} | {boldV}_{r}; Σ) & left \equiv \max_{\dot{bolds}} lik ({boldV}_{r} | \dot{bolds}; Σ) p_{scriptU} (\dot{bolds}; 0, {\dot{bolds}}_{\infty}) & right \\ right s.t. {bolda}^{T} \dot{bolds} & left = {\dot{M}}_{test}, \end{matrix}

where

\overset{s}{true}

is the vector of SDRs on each fault patch and

p_{U} false(\cdot; bold0, {\overset{s}{true}}_{\infty} false)

is the uniform PDF over SDR; that is, we assume that back slip is bounded between zero and the long‐term rate

{\overset{s}{true}}_{\infty}

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Bounding the Moment Deficit Rate on Crustal Faults Using Geodetic Data: Application to Southern California

2018

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Our InSAR results help to extend the spatial coverage provided by the sparse GPS data for the region and allow us to constrain the moment accumulation rate along the Aceh segment to better understand the seismic hazards along this creeping fault. Maurer et al () rigorously investigated the methods to constrain the bounds of the moment deficit rate from geodetic observations. They proposed two new methods, Constrained Optimization Bounding Linear Estimator (COBLE) and Constrained Optimization Bounding Estimator (COBE), and studied the Parkfield region of the San Andreas Fault.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surface Creep Rate and Moment Accumulation Rate Along the Aceh Segment of the Sumatran Fault From L‐band ALOS‐1/PALSAR‐1 Observations

Tong

Sandwell

Schmidt

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We analyzed the interferometric synthetic aperture radar data from the ALOS‐1/PALSAR‐1 satellite to image the interseismic deformation along the Sumatran fault. The interferometric synthetic aperture radar time series analysis reveals up to ~20 mm/year of aseismic creep on the Aceh segment along the Northern Sumatran fault. This is a large fraction of the total slip rate across this fault. The spatial extent of the aseismic creep extends for ~100 km. The along‐strike variation of the aseismic creep has an inverse “U” shape. An analysis of the moment accumulation rate shows that the central part of the creeping section accumulates moment at approximately 50% of the rate of the surrounding locked segments. An initial analysis of temporal variations suggests that the creep rate may be decelerating with time, suggesting that the creep rate is adjusting to a stress perturbation from nearby seismic activity. Our study has implications to the earthquake hazard along the northern Sumatran fault.

show abstract

Earth Observation for the Assessment of Earthquake Hazard, Risk and Disaster Management

Elliott

2020

Surv Geophys

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Earthquakes pose a significant hazard, and due to the growth of vulnerable, exposed populations, global levels of seismic risk are increasing. In the past three decades, a dramatic improvement in the volume, quality and consistency of satellite observations of solid earth processes has occurred. I review the current Earth Observing (EO) systems commonly used for measuring earthquake and crustal deformation that can help constrain the potential sources of seismic hazard. I examine the various current contributions and future potential for EO data to feed into aspects of the earthquake disaster management cycle. I discuss the implications that systematic assimilation of Earth Observation data has for the future assessment of seismic hazard and secondary hazards, and the contributions it will make to earthquake disaster risk reduction. I focus on the recent applications of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and increasingly the use of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) for the derivation of crustal deformation and these data’s contribution to estimates of hazard. I finish by examining the outlook for EO in geohazards in both science and decision-making, as well as offering some recommendations for an enhanced acquisition strategy for SAR data.

show abstract

Bounding the moment deficit rate on crustal faults using geodetic data: Methods

Cited by 10 publications

References 61 publications

Bounding the Moment Deficit Rate on Crustal Faults Using Geodetic Data: Application to Southern California

Bounding the Moment Deficit Rate on Crustal Faults Using Geodetic Data: Application to Southern California

Surface Creep Rate and Moment Accumulation Rate Along the Aceh Segment of the Sumatran Fault From L‐band ALOS‐1/PALSAR‐1 Observations

Earth Observation for the Assessment of Earthquake Hazard, Risk and Disaster Management

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About