Bounding linear rainfall-runoff models with fractional derivatives applied to a barren catchment of the Jordan Rift Valley

Unami, Koichi; Fadhil, Rasha M.; Mohawesh, Osama

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125879

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…The numerical examples presented in this study support the hypothesis that such discontinuities in kinematic waves develop even under the smoothness of all input. Abrupt arrivals of flash floods are reported mostly in arid regions where concave topographies are typical (Unami et al, 2021), making a real-world manifestation of the phenomena presented here. However, rigorous mathematical analysis is still necessary to prove that the numerically obtained abrupt changes are valid evidence of the discontinuities.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

Numerical Examples of Non-Dissipative Discontinuous Kinematic Waves in Open Channels

Mean

Unami

Fujihara

2022

Journal of Rainwater Catchment Systems

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The kinematic wave model under the assumption of balanced gravity and friction forces has been applied in open channel hydraulics and surface hydrology. There persists a severe misunderstanding that a discontinuity of a kinematic wave occurs due to a discontinuity of input and then dissipates. This study clarifies that a discontinuity can develop without dissipation under the smoothness of all input. The theory of first-order quasilinear partial differential equations shows that Cauchy problems for the kinematic wave model have unique measurable and bounded solutions, which are possibly discontinuous. Numerical examples are presented to visualize the fundamental properties of discontinuous kinematic waves.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

Numerical Examples of Non-Dissipative Discontinuous Kinematic Waves in Open Channels

Mean

Unami

Fujihara

2022

Journal of Rainwater Catchment Systems

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“…A strong correlation was not found between the rainfall depths at the two points and the runoff discharges, implying that the spatial rainfall distribution was uneven and that the runoff process was nonlinear and highly stochastic. The authors have conducted independent research on those physical phenomena (Unami et al, 2021), but direct monitoring of runoff discharges rather than rainfall depths is recommended for the practical designing of WH systems. Probability distribution fitting was successful with MGE, which can be an alternative to the more controversial MLE approach.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A threshold of the total runoff volumes V is set as 100 m 3 , and flash flood events yielding V less than that threshold are discarded. From the time series

Q_{t}

of discharge with the 1‐min interval (

0 \leq t < T

TV ([], Q)

and

MV ([], Q)

are calculated as,

italicTV ([], Q) = \sum_{t = 0}^{t < T - 1} (||, Q_{t + 1} - Q_{t}),

and

MV ([], Q) = \max_{0 \leq t < T - 1} (||, Q_{t + 1} - Q_{t}),

respectively (Unami et al, 2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical analysis of flash flood events for designing water harvesting systems in an extremely arid environment

Unami

Mohawesh

Fadhil

2021

Hydrological Processes

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A water harvesting system for research purposes has been established in the Lisan Peninsula of the Dead Sea in the middle of the Jordan Rift Valley, where no authorized guideline is available for designing water harvesting systems. Rainfall and runoff, which occurred as flash floods, were observed at the downstream end of a gorge with a 1.12 km 2 barren catchment area from October 2014 through July 2019. Due to the extremely arid environment, runoff from the catchment is ephemeral, and the flash flood events can be clearly distinguishable from each other. Thirteen flash flood events with a total runoff volume of more than 100 m 3 were successfully recorded during the five rainy seasons. Pearson and Spearman correlations between duration, total rainfall depths at two points, total runoff volume, maximum runoff discharge, bulk runoff coefficient, total variation in runoff discharge and maximum variation in runoff discharge of each flash flood event were examined, revealing no straightforward relationship between rainfall and runoff. The performance of the conventional SCS runoff curve number method was also deficient in reproducing any rainfall-runoff relationship. Therefore, probability distribution fitting was performed for each random variable, focusing on the lognormal distribution with three parameters and the generalized extreme value distribution. The maximum goodness-of-fit estimation turns out to be a more rational and efficient method in obtaining the parameter values of those probability distributions rather than the standard maximum likelihood estimation, which has known disadvantages. Results support the design of the water harvesting system and provide quantitative information for designing and operating similar systems in the future.

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“…The developed models accurately predicted flood flow over the watershed. Unami, K. [44] proposed a study investigating the dynamics of rainfall-runoff events in a desolate Jordan Rift Valley catchment. The produced upper and lower limiting rainfall-runoff models with fractional derivatives are evaluated in a system-theoretic framework by a pair of exogenous input (ARX models) with linear autoregressive models employing time series rainfall and runoff data.…”

Section: Literature Review Related To Flooding In Jordanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gridded Precipitation Datasets and Gauge Precipitation Products for Driving Hydrological Models in the Dead Sea Region, Jordan

2023

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The consistency of hydrological process modeling depends on reliable parameters and available long-term gauge data, which are frequently restricted within the Dead Sea/Jordan regions. This paper proposes a novel method of utilizing six satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation datasets, which are assessed, evaluated, and corrected, particularly for the cases of ungauged basins and poorly monitored regions, for the first time. Due to natural processes, catchments fluctuate dramatically annually and seasonally, making this a challenge. This variability, which is significantly impacted by topo-geomorphological and climatic variables within the basins themselves, leads to increased uncertainty in models and significant restrictions in terms of runoff forecasting. However, quality evaluations and bias corrections should be conducted before the application of satellite data. Moreover, the hydrological HEC-HMS model was utilized to predict the runoff under different loss methods. Furthermore, this loss method was used with an integrated model that might be efficiently employed when designing hydraulic structures requiring high reliability in predicting peak flows. The models’ performance was evaluated using R-squared (R2), the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). In addition, these statistical metrics were implemented to quantitatively evaluate the data quality based on the observed data collected between 2015 and 2020. The results show that AgERA5 exhibited better agreement with the gauge precipitation data than other reanalysis precipitation and satellite-based datasets. The results demonstrate that the data quality of these products could be affected by observational bias, the spatial scale, and the retrieval method. Moreover, the SC loss method demonstrated satisfactory values for the R2, RMSE, NSE, and bias compared to the IC and GA loss, indicating its effectiveness in predicting peak flows and designing hydraulic structures that require high reliability. Overall, the study suggests that AgERA5 can provide better precipitation estimates for hydrological modeling in the Dead Sea region in Jordan. Moreover, integrating the SC, IC, and GA loss methods in hydraulic structure design can enhance prediction accuracy and reliability.

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Bounding linear rainfall-runoff models with fractional derivatives applied to a barren catchment of the Jordan Rift Valley

Cited by 5 publications

References 39 publications

Numerical Examples of Non-Dissipative Discontinuous Kinematic Waves in Open Channels

Numerical Examples of Non-Dissipative Discontinuous Kinematic Waves in Open Channels

Statistical analysis of flash flood events for designing water harvesting systems in an extremely arid environment

Gridded Precipitation Datasets and Gauge Precipitation Products for Driving Hydrological Models in the Dead Sea Region, Jordan

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