Bluetongue risk under future climates

Jones, Anne E; Turner, Joanne; Caminade, Cyril; Heath, A. E.; Wardeh, Maya; Kluiters, Georgette; Diggle, Peter J.; Morse, Andrew P.; Baylis, Matthew

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0376-6

Cited by 26 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…For future predictions, we chose two carbon emission scenarios: RCP4.5 (moderately optimistic) and RCP8.5 (pessimistic). We use precipitation and temperature predictions of the NorESM1-M model from the NEX-NASA GDDP data set ( 32 ), as this model produces a median trend in terms of temperature increase( 33 ). The agricultural index and elevation had to be used as present day data.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperatures that sterilise males better predict global species distributions than lethal temperatures

Parratt

Walsh

Metelmann

et al. 2020

Preprint

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18Climate change is well understood to be a major threat to biodiversity, but sublethal impacts of 19 high temperatures, such as reduced fertility, have been poorly studied. We examined a panel of 20 43 Drosophila species, finding that 19 experience significant fertility loss at temperatures up to 21 4.3 o C cooler than their lethal temperature limits. We found that upper thermal fertility limits 22 explain global distributions of species better than limits based on lethal temperatures. This 23 suggests that limits to reproduction, rather than limits to survival, can underpin species 24 distributions in nature. Given that high temperatures impair male fertility across a broad range of 25 animals and plants, many species may be at increased risk of extinction due to inability to 26 reproduce at high temperatures.27 28 One Sentence Summary: 29 Species' distributions and response to climate change are strongly affected by the temperature at 30 which they lose fertility. 31 3 Main Text: 32 We urgently need to understand how rises in temperature will impact biodiversity(1). To do this 33 we must understand the physiological, behavioral and evolutionary factors that underpin 34 species' current thermal distributions(2, 3). Laboratory-derived estimates of the highest 35 temperatures at which an organism can function provide measures of species' thermal 36 tolerances(4). These measures of upper thermal limits have improved the accuracy of 37 functional species distribution models(5) which can be extrapolated to climate change 38 scenarios, allowing ecologists to forecast future species distributions(6). Accurate predictions of 39 species' distributions are invaluable for prioritizing conservation efforts(7) and predicting the 40 invasion of disease vectors(8). 42Upper thermal tolerance limits are usually based on the temperatures that cause loss of 43 coordinated movement, coma, respiratory failure, or death: the species' critical thermal limit. 44Despite these being measured in artificial laboratory conditions, critical limits correlate 45 reasonably well with species' distributions(4) and have been used to estimate species' capacity 46 to tolerate temperature increases across their current distribution range; their 'thermal safety 47 margins'(3). However, persistence of populations is not determined solely by survival, but also 48 by reproduction. There is evidence that sub-lethal temperatures cause losses in fertility in 49 plants(9), insects(10-12), fish(13), aquatic invertebrates(14), birds(15) and mammals, including 50 humans(16). These effects include direct impacts on physiological processes (10, 15, 17) and 51 indirect influences via changes in behavior and phenology(18). Previously, we proposed that 52 temperatures at which fertility is lost, the thermal fertility limits (TFLs) (18), may be a critical 53 4 but understudied part of species' true upper thermal limits. If TFLs are lower than critical limits, 54 then many organisms will be more vulnerable to climate change than currently thought. If TF...

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperatures that sterilise males better predict global species distributions than lethal temperatures

Parratt

Walsh

Metelmann

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…At warmer temperatures, this time can be reduced substantially, providing more opportunity for transmission within the vector's lifespan. Certain vector-borne diseases, such as bluetongue, an economically important viral disease of livestock, have already emerged in Europe in response to climate change, and larger, more frequent outbreaks are predicted to occur in the future 241 . For certain waterborne infections by pathogenic Vibrio spp., poleward spread correlates with increasing global temperature and lower salinity of aquatic environments in coastal regions (such as estuaries) caused by increased precipitation 242 .…”

Section: Infectious Diseasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scientists’ warning to humanity: microorganisms and climate change

et al. 2019

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| In the Anthropocene, in which we now live, climate change is impacting most life on Earth. Microorganisms support the existence of all higher trophic life forms. To understand how humans and other life forms on Earth (including those we are yet to discover) can withstand anthropogenic climate change, it is vital to incorporate knowledge of the microbial 'unseen majority'. We must learn not just how microorganisms affect climate change (including production and consumption of greenhouse gases) but also how they will be affected by climate change and other human activities. This Consensus Statement documents the central role and global importance of microorganisms in climate change biology. It also puts humanity on notice that the impact of climate change will depend heavily on responses of microorganisms, which are essential for achieving an environmentally sustainable future.

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“…The results show that warmer areas are at risk year-round, while cooler areas are at risk for fewer months. However, these results are based on long-term, baseline current temperatures, and with climate change, and the continuous rising of global temperatures, the area at risk of BTV may expand and shift to include places with previously lower risk [46].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the effect of temperature on Bluetongue disease risk in livestock

El-Moustaid

Thronton

Slamani

et al. 2019

Preprint

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The transmission of vector-borne diseases is governed by complex factors including pathogen characteristics, vector-host interactions, and environmental conditions. Temperature is a major driver for many vector-borne diseases including Bluetongue viral (BTV) disease, a midge-borne febrile disease of ruminants, notably livestock, whose etiology ranges from mild or asymptomatic to rapidly fatal, thus threatening animal agriculture and the economy of affected countries. Using modeling tools, we seek to predict where transmission can occur based on suitable temperatures for BTV. We fit thermal performance curves to temperature sensitive midge life history traits, using a Bayesian approach. Then, we incorporated these into a new formula for the disease basic reproductive number, R 0 , to include trait responses, for two species of key midge vectors, Culicoides sonorensis and Culicoides variipennis. Our results show that outbreaks of BTV are more likely between 15 • C and 33 • C with predicted peak transmission at 26 • C. The greatest uncertainty in R 0 is associated with the uncertainty in: mortality and fecundity of midges near optimal temperature for transmission; midges' probability of becoming infectious post infection at the lower edge of the thermal range; and the biting rate together with vector competence at the higher edge of the thermal range. We compare our R 0 to two other R 0 formulations and show that incorporating thermal curves into all three leads to similar BTV risk predictions. To demonstrate the utility of this model approach, we created global suitability maps indicating the areas at high and long-term risk of BTV transmission, to assess risk, and anticipate potential locations of establishment.

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Bluetongue risk under future climates

Cited by 26 publications

References 46 publications

Temperatures that sterilise males better predict global species distributions than lethal temperatures

Temperatures that sterilise males better predict global species distributions than lethal temperatures

Scientists’ warning to humanity: microorganisms and climate change

Understanding the effect of temperature on Bluetongue disease risk in livestock

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