Blue is the fashion in Mediterranean pines: New drought signals from tree-ring density in southern Europe

Akhmetzyanov, Linar; Sánchez‐Salguero, Raúl; García‐González, Ignacio; Domínguez‐Delmás, Marta; Sass‐Klaassen, Ute

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159291

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 90 publications

(121 reference statements)

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“…There are state-of-the-art techniques currently being applied within the dendrochronology community that can help improve our understanding of the natural range of drought variability. Beyond using tree ring widths, some studies are isolating earlywood and latewood signals for better drought reconstruction or using blue intensity (the intensity of reflectance of the blue channel light from a wood core) to identify more stable climategrowth relationships that inform more robust reconstructions (Akhmetzyanov et al, 2023).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Contributions of Paleo-Informed Natural Variability and Climate Changes on Hydroclimate Extremes in the Central Valley Region of California

Gupta

Reed

2023

Preprint

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To aid California’s water sector to better manage future climate extremes, we present a method for creating a regional ensemble of plausible daily future climate and streamflow scenarios that represent natural climate variability captured in a network of tree-ring chronologies, and then embed anthropogenic climate change trends within those scenarios. We use 600 years of paleo-reconstructed weather regimes to force a stochastic weather generator, which we develop for five subbasins in the San Joaquin River in the Central Valley region of California. To assess the compound effects of climate change, we create temperature series that reflect scenarios of warming and precipitation series that are scaled to reflect thermodynamically driven shifts in the daily precipitation distribution. We then use these weather scenarios to force hydrologic models for each of the San Joaquin subbasins. The paleo-forced streamflow scenarios highlight periods in the region’s past that produce flood and drought extremes that surpass those in the modern record and exhibit large non-stationarity through the reconstruction. Variance decomposition is employed to characterize the contribution of natural variability and climate change to variability in decision-relevant metrics related to floods and drought. Our results show that a large portion of variability in individual subbasin and spatially compounding extreme events can be attributed to natural variability, but that anthropogenic climate changes become more influential at longer planning horizons. The joint importance of climate change and natural variability in shaping extreme floods and droughts is critical to resilient water systems planning and management in the Central Valley region.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Contributions of Paleo-Informed Natural Variability and Climate Changes on Hydroclimate Extremes in the Central Valley Region of California

Gupta

Reed

2023

Preprint

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“…There are state‐of‐the‐art techniques currently being applied within the dendrochronology community that can help improve our understanding of the natural range of drought variability. Beyond using tree ring widths, some studies are isolating earlywood and latewood signals for better drought reconstruction (Song et al., 2022; Soulé et al., 2021) or using blue intensity (the intensity of reflectance of the blue channel light from a wood core) to identify more stable climate‐growth relationships that inform more robust reconstructions (Akhmetzyanov et al., 2023). Furthermore, better forecasts could provide water managers with more effective ways to navigate drought caused by natural variability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Contributions of Paleo‐Informed Natural Variability and Climate Changes to Hydroclimate Extremes in the San Joaquin Valley of California

Gupta,

Steinschneider,

Reed

2023

Earth's Future

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To aid California's water sector to better understand and manage future climate extremes, we present a method for creating a regionally consistent ensemble of plausible daily future climate and streamflow scenarios that represent natural climate variability captured in a network of tree‐ring chronologies, and then embed anthropogenic climate change trends within those scenarios. We use 600 years of paleo‐reconstructed weather regimes to force a stochastic weather generator, which we develop for five subbasins in the San Joaquin Valley of California. To assess the compound effects of climate change, we create temperature series that reflect projected scenarios of warming and precipitation series that have been scaled to reflect thermodynamically driven shifts in the distribution of daily precipitation. We then use these weather scenarios to force hydrologic models for each of the five subbasins. The paleo‐forced streamflow scenarios highlight periods in the region's past that produce flood and drought extremes that surpass those in the modern record and exhibit large non‐stationarity through the reconstruction. Variance decomposition is employed to characterize the contribution of natural variability and climate change to variability in decision‐relevant metrics related to floods and drought. Our results show that a large portion of variability in individual subbasin and spatially compounding extreme events can be attributed to natural variability, but that anthropogenic climate changes become more influential at longer planning horizons. The joint importance of climate change and natural variability in shaping extreme floods and droughts is critical to resilient water systems planning and management in the San Joaquin.

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“…Declining MXD values associated with intensive drought events and low soil water availability are also evidenced for Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.) in northern Spain (Candel‐Pérez et al., 2018), Black pine ( Pinus nigra subsp. salzmanii Arnold) in southern Europe (Akhmetzyanov et al., 2023), and two pine species ( Pinus lumholtzii and Pinus durangensis ) in Mexico (Pompa‐García et al., 2021). Such a response can be related to the production of less dense latewood tracheids due to increasing water‐conducting efficiency (Eilmann et al., 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite these slightly contradicting phenomenon, MXD data from drought‐prone sites or lower latitudes, more likely record a hydroclimate signal, although only a handful of MXD evidence is available to support this assumption. For example, blue intensity parameters of latewood black pine ( Pinus nigra ) are significantly related to June and September precipitation at a high‐elevation site in southern Europe (Akhmetzyanov et al., 2023). MXD variations of two pine species ( Pinus lumholtzii and Pinus durangensis ) in Mexico are associated with winter and spring water balance (Pompa‐García et al., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pine Maximum Latewood Density in Semi‐Arid Northern China Records Hydroclimate Rather Than Temperature

Yang

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Blue is the fashion in Mediterranean pines: New drought signals from tree-ring density in southern Europe

Cited by 10 publications

References 90 publications

Understanding Contributions of Paleo-Informed Natural Variability and Climate Changes on Hydroclimate Extremes in the Central Valley Region of California

Understanding Contributions of Paleo-Informed Natural Variability and Climate Changes on Hydroclimate Extremes in the Central Valley Region of California

Understanding the Contributions of Paleo‐Informed Natural Variability and Climate Changes to Hydroclimate Extremes in the San Joaquin Valley of California

Pine Maximum Latewood Density in Semi‐Arid Northern China Records Hydroclimate Rather Than Temperature

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