Blended Dry and Hot Events Index for Monitoring Dry‐Hot Events Over Global Land Areas

Wu, Haijiang; Su, Xiaoling; Singh, Vijay P.

doi:10.1029/2021gl096181

Cited by 36 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 38 publications

(80 reference statements)

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“…According to these classifications, CDHEs belong to multivariate compound events, driven by high‐temperature anomalies combined with severe precipitation deficit. It was found that climate change enhanced the frequencies, severities, and other characteristics of CDHEs over many regions worldwide (Wu, Su, & Singh, 2021). For instance, Europe was invaded by extreme heatwaves and severe precipitation deficit in 2003, 2010, and 2018, leading to massive losses of crops, wildfires, and increased human mortality and morbidity (Bastos et al., 2014; Ribeiro et al., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events

et al. 2022

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Compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) have increased significantly and caused agricultural losses and adverse impacts on human health. It is thus critical to investigate changes in CDHEs and population exposure in responding to climate change. Based on the simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), future changes in CDHEs and population exposure are estimated under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios (SSPs) at first. And then the driving forces behind these changes are analyzed and discussed. The results show that the occurrence of CDHEs is expected to increase by larger magnitudes by the end of the 21st century (the 2080s) than that by the mid‐21st century (2050s). Correspondingly, population exposure to CDHEs is expected to increase significantly responding to higher global warming (SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5) but is limited to a relatively low level under the modest emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6). Globally, compared to 1985–2014, the exposure is expected to increase by 8.5 and 7.7 times under SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios by the 2080s, respectively. Regionally, Sahara has the largest increase in population exposure to CDHEs, followed by the Mediterranean, Northeast America, Central America, Africa, and Central Asia. The contribution of climate change to the increase of exposure is about 75% by the 2080s under the SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, while that of population change is much lower. The conclusion highlights the importance and urgency of implementing mitigation strategies to alleviate the influence of CDHEs on human society.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events

et al. 2022

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“…Understanding drought prediction at a short temporal scale (e.g., semimonthly), especially during severe compound dry‐hot conditions (Bevacqua et al., 2022; Wu, Su, & Singh, 2021), is of critical importance for the practitioners and stakeholders for taking powerful measures in advance to reduce more potential impactful water shortage (Wu, Su, Singh, et al., 2021). Finally, robust drought prediction on the basis of this work can provide valuable information for water‐use sectors at an early stage, and therefore the sectors can take appropriate measures to cope with associated drought risks.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Drought, as a widespread natural hazard in any climate regime, has disastrous impacts on agricultural activity, water resources management, and human health, resulting in crop failure, ecosystem degradation, and political conflicts, with wide‐ranging socioeconomic effects (Ault et al., 2016; Jiang et al., 2022; Stevenson et al., 2022; Williams et al., 2020; Wu, Su, & Singh, 2021). Mounting severe drought events, for example, the 2014 North China drought (Wu, Su, Singh, et al., 2021), the May 2017 flash drought in the U.S. Northern Plains (Xu et al., 2020; Zarekarizi et al., 2021), the 2021 Canada and the USA drought (Schiermeier, 2021), and the long lasting 2000–2021 southwestern North American megadrought (Williams et al., 2020, 2022), have occurred in recent decades, contributing to large economic, food, water, and ecosystem insecurity (Coffel et al., 2019; Hameed et al., 2020; Xu et al., 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(2020) utilized a copula function to propose a new integrated drought index—standardized precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture index. As a probabilistic prediction method, vine copula can decompose multiple variates into pairwise variables via bivariate copula forms, which can well depict the diverse dependencies among variables (Aas et al., 2009; Alipour et al., 2022; Bedford & Cooke, 2002; Kurowicka & Joe, 2011; Liu et al., 2021; Tao et al., 2021; Wu, Su, & Singh, 2021; Wu, Su, Singh, et al., 2021; Zhu et al., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting Hydrological Drought With Bayesian Model Averaging Ensemble Vine Copula (BMAViC) Model

Singh

et al. 2022

Water Resources Research

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Streamflow deficit (hydrological drought) poses a large risk to water resources management, agricultural production, water supply, hydropower generation, and ecosystem services. Reliable and robust hydrological drought predictions are critical for water and food security and ecosystem health under anthropogenic warming. However, the prevalent statistical prediction methods, for example, the meta‐Gaussian (MG) model, usually do not lead to accurate drought predictions. We therefore developed a new drought prediction model utilizing the Bayesian Model Averaging coupled with Vine Copula, called Bayesian Model Averaging Ensemble Vine Copula (BMAViC) model, in which previous meteorological drought, antecedent evaporative drought, and preceding hydrological drought were selected as three predictors. The BMAViC model was applied to the Upper Yellow River basin and showed robust skills during calibration and validation periods for 1‐ to 3‐month lead hydrological drought predictions. In comparison with the MG model (reference model), the skills of the proposed model were relatively stable and superior under diverse lead times. Good performances under the 1‐ to 3‐month lead times strongly implied that the BMAViC model yielded robust and accurate hydrological drought predictions. The study results enhance our confidence in seasonal drought prediction and help us understand drought dynamics in future months.

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“…To further analyze the contributions of the temperature and precipitation changes to the trend of the dry spell duration, a multiple linear regression method (Wu et al, 2021) was applied. First, multiple linear regression was adopted to calculate the duration predicted and regressed by the temperature and precipitation on each grid:…”

Section: Relative Contribution Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in dry spell durations associated with temperature warming and precipitation variations over the Indo-China Peninsula

Luo

Wang

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Dry spells have negative implications for water security and agriculture. Climate changes associated with increasing temperature and precipitation variations lead to changes in dry spell durations. The variability of the dry spell duration during the rainy season (May–October) over the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) was analyzed, and the contributions of the temperature and precipitation changes with respect to the trend in the total duration of dry spells (TDDS) were quantified using linear regression methods. The results indicate increasing trend in the with a rate of 0.9 days/10 year over the entire ICP. Nevertheless, the trends presented great spatial variability, and 37.4% and 10.7% of the peninsula presented significant increasing and decreasing trends at the 95% confidence level, respectively. Climate warming has led to a considerable elongation of the dry spells during the rainy season at a rate of 5.3 days/°C, and areas with precipitation less than 1000 mm and higher than 2000 mm generally show faster increases. The change rates are clearly asymmetrically distributed with the dry spell duration, with hotter rainy seasons witnessing more frequent long-duration dry spells. On the other hand, considerable increasing precipitation shortens the dry spells, while decreasing precipitation facilitates the dry spell extension caused by rising temperatures. As the climate continues to warm, hotter rainy seasons will favor more frequent and prolonged dry spells, which will further exacerbate drought and heat waves over the ICP. These research results are expected to provide reference for agricultural activities, water resources management, and disaster prevention over the ICP.

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Blended Dry and Hot Events Index for Monitoring Dry‐Hot Events Over Global Land Areas

Cited by 36 publications

References 38 publications

Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events

Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events

Predicting Hydrological Drought With Bayesian Model Averaging Ensemble Vine Copula (BMAViC) Model

Changes in dry spell durations associated with temperature warming and precipitation variations over the Indo-China Peninsula

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