Phase transitions are part of everyday life, yet are also believed to be part of the history of our universe, where the nature of particle interactions change as the universe settles into its vacuum state. The discovery of the Higgs [1, 20], and measurement of its mass suggests that our vacuum may not be entirely stable, and that a further phase transition could take place. This article is based on a talk in the Oldenberg Series, and reviews how we find the probability of these phase transitions, discussing work I have performed on how black holes can dramatically change the result! Apart from a brief update at the end, this article mostly follows the content of the talk.