Birthdate and success in minor hockey: The key to the NHL.

Abstract

Previous research (Barnsley, Thompson, & Barnsley, 198S) demonstrated an extremely strong linear relationship between the month of birth (from January to December) and the likelihood of playing in the National Hockey League and two major developmental Junior hockey leagues. The present study analyzes the birthdates of 7313 hockey players participating in the Edmonton Minor Hockey Association in the 1983-1984 season. The main findings are that players possessing a relative age advantage, i.e., born in the months of January to June, are more likely to participate in minor hockey and are more likely to play for "top tier," or "rep" teams than are players who are born in the months of July to December and thereby are disadvantaged by their relative age. Proposals by which these relative age effects could be reduced are considered.

Unequal Competition as an Impediment to Personal Development: A Review of the Relative Age Effect in Sport

“…Both of these predictions are at odds with empirical findings. There was no RAE among the youngest players in the studies of Barnsley and Thompson (1988) and Musch (1998), and the magnitude of the RAE increased rather than decreased with increasing age in these studies. This pattern of results suggests that RAEs cannot be explained by physical variables alone.…”

“…1 The RAE in North American ice hockey is also firmly established. The phenomenon was shown by several authors to exist not only in the NHL, but also in different geographical regions across Canada in competitive minor hockey (Barnsley et al, 1985;Barnsley & Thompson, 1988;Boucher & Halliwell, 1991;Boucher & Mutimer, 1994;Grondin et al, 1984;Grondin & Trudeau, 1991;Krouse, 1995). Daniel and Janssen (1987) provided evidence that the effect is a fairly recent phenomenon, however.…”

“…For example, December and January-being at opposite ends of the competition year in hockey-are juxtaposed and very similar climatically. Nevertheless, significant RAEs were found in hockey (Barnsley et al, 1985;Barnsley & Thompson, 1988;Boucher & Halliwell, 1991;Boucher & Mutimer, 1994;Grondin et al, 1984;Grondin & Trudeau, 1991;Krouse, 1995). This suggests that the cutoff date rather than some seasonal influence causes the RAE.…”

“…In the case of ice hockey, for example, somatic strength is of great importance both for carrying the heavy weight of the equipment (Grondin & Trudeau, 1991) and for body checking (Barnsley & Thompson, 1988). Physical development (and also motor skill, a major determinant of team placement in junior ice hockey; Daniel & Janssen, 1987) is strongly correlated with chronological age (Brauer, 1982).…”

“…In sport, however, the existence of a RAE is a less well-recognized phenomenon and, until now, no strategies have been implemented to combat the negative consequences of a low relative age. Contrary to older children, the younger ones are likely to drop out rather than to continue voluntary participation (Barnsley & Thompson, 1988;Musch, 1998).…”