Biothermal Development: A Model for Predicting the Distribution of Emergence Times of Diapausing Heliothis Armigera

Abstract

Summary Laboratory data on the time to termination of diapause and the subsequent time to emergence of the Heliothis armigera moth have been analysed in relation to temperature. Excluding the data observed at 18 °C, the times to termination of diapause follow a geometric distribution and the subsequent times to emergence are approximately uniform over a small range of about three days. Based on these results a model has been developed for the prediction of the distribution of moth emergence times in a situation of continuously varying temperatures, i.e. in the field situation. The predictions compare well with the observed emergence in each of the five years 1974–78. This study provides empirical evidence to support the theory that break of diapause is a dual process; potentiation of development is a random exponential process and development itself is a deterministic process. Both mechanisms are assumed to be dependent only on temperature.

The Biology and Ecology of Heliothis-Armigera (Hubner) and Heliothis-Punctigera Wallengren (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) in Australia - What Do We Know

“…Adults of both species emerge from diapause over a protracted period during spring and early summer. Wilson et al (1979) and Cunningham et al (1981) showed that the time taken to break diapause in armigera could be described by a geometric distribution with a long 'tail' for pupae which took a long time for this.…”

Patterns of diapause frequency and emergence in swede midges of southern Ontario

“…Emergence phenotypes in many insects result from differences in the duration of diapause or in degree‐day requirements to complete post‐diapause development (Waldbauer & Sternburg, ; Gage & Haynes, ; Cunningham et al , ; Weiss et al , ; Turnock & Boivin, ; Biron et al , , , ; Masaki, ; Fournet et al , ; Son et al , ) and may be controlled by both genetic (Morris & Fulton, ; Biron et al , ) and extrinsic factors (Kimura, ; Collier et al , ; Nakamura & Numata, ). Diapause durations for swede midge in the laboratory are highly variable; although most individuals require 100 days to complete diapause at 2–5 °C, some swede midges complete diapause in as little as 40 days (Readshaw, ).…”

“…Biron et al () demonstrated discrete degree‐day requirements for pupal development in early and late nondiapause emergence phenotypes of D. radicum . Degree‐day accumulation is a reliable predictor of emergence in many insects (Cunningham et al , ; Waldbauer & Sternburg, ), although whether emergence phenotypes in the swede midge correlate with differences in diapause durations or post‐diapause development is not known.…”

Development of American Bollworm, Helicoverpa Armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Relation to Heat Unit Requirement

“…Applied biologists have been interested for a long time in predicting the date of emergence of the spring brood of insects. It is well established that the rates of development during different stages of the life-cycle of many insects depend on the temperatures to which they are exposed (Cunningham et al 1981).…”