Biological age and brain age in midlife: relationship to multimorbidity and mental health

Abstract

Multimorbidity, co-occurrence of two or more chronic conditions, is one of the top priorities in global health research and has emerged as the gold standard approach to study disease accumulation. As aging underlies the development of many chronic conditions, surrogate aging biomarkers are not disease-specific and capture health at the whole person level, having the potential to improve our understanding of multimorbidity. Biological age has been examined in recent years as a surrogate biomarker to capture the process of aging. However, relatively few studies have investigated the relationship between biological age and multimorbidity. More research is needed to quantify biological age using a broad range of biological markers and multimorbidity based on a comprehensive set of chronic conditions. Brain age estimated by neuroimaging data and machine learning models is another surrogate aging biomarker predictive of a wide range of health outcomes. Little is known about the relationship between brain age and multimorbidity. To answer these questions, our study investigates whether elevated biological age and accelerated brain age are associated with an increased risk of multimorbidity using a large dataset from the Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) Refresher study. Ensemble learning is utilized to combine multiple machine learning models to estimate biological age using a comprehensive set of biological markers. Brain age is obtained using convolutional neural networks and neuroimaging data. Our study is the first to examine the relationship between accelerated brain age and multimorbidity and presents the first effort to test whether sex moderates the relationship between these surrogate aging biomarkers and multimorbidity. Furthermore, it is the first attempt to explore how biological age and brain age are related to multimorbidity in mental health. Our findings hold the potential to advance the understanding of the accumulation of physical and mental health conditions, which may contribute to new strategies to improve the treatment of multimorbidity and detection of at-risk individuals.