Biogeophysical Impacts of Land‐Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low‐Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI‐Land

Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoît P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Dann; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Wilson, Simon

doi:10.1002/2017ef000744

Cited by 40 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 43 publications

(60 reference statements)

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“…Using a single climate model, (Findell et al 2017) reached similar conclusions. Results from a set of climate models have shown the impact of future land use change on extreme local temperatures could be of similar magnitude to the changes arising from a +0.5°C global mean surface temperature change (Hirsch et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century

Quesada

2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Anthropogenic land cover change (LCC) can have significant impacts at regional and seasonal scales but also for extreme weather events to which socio-economical systems are vulnerable. However, the effects of LCC on extreme events remain either largely unexplored and/or without consensus following modelling over the historical period (often based on a single model), regional or idealized studies. Here, using simulations performed with five earth system models under common future global LCC scenarios (the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 Representative Concentration Pathways) and analyzing 20 extreme weather indices, we find future LCC substantially modulates projected weather extremes. On average by the end of the 21st century, under RCP8.5, future LCC robustly lessens global projections of high rainfall extremes by 22% for heavy precipitation days (>10 mm) and by 16% for total precipitation amount of wet days (PRCPTOT). Accounting for LCC diminishes their regional projections by >50% (70%) in southern Africa (northeastern Brazil) but intensifies projected dry days in eastern Africa by 29%. LCC does not substantially affect projections of global and regional temperature extremes (<5%), but it can impact global rainfall extremes 2.5 times more than global mean rainfall projections. Under an RCP2.6 scenario, global LCC impacts are similar but of lesser magnitude, while at regional scale in Amazon or Asia, LCC enhances drought projections. We stress here that multi-coupled modelling frameworks incorporating all aspects of land use are needed for reliable projections of extreme events.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century

Quesada

2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…As a consequence of the role of regional processes in affecting TCRreg, biogeophysical land-use forcing, e.g. through irrigation or changes in land surface albedo associated with changes in land cover or land management, is found to be a key driver of changes in regional climate extremes, especially in low-emissions scenarios [ 15 , 16 ]. This is of key relevance for the development of climate change scenarios, since land-use changes (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…associated with changes in agricultural production, reforestation/afforestation, or the cultivation of bioenergy crops, in some case with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)) are a major component of integrated assessment models (IAMs) that underlie the derivation of these scenarios [ 3 , 17 ]. However, these changes in land use are only considered from the perspective of carbon cycle impacts in IAM models, and do not encompass the associated biogeophysical feedbacks (see also [ 16 ]). As highlighted in this article, the integration of these biogeophysical feedbacks in future IAM developments would be critical to explore the full dimension of low-emissions scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

Seneviratne

Wartenburger

Guillod

et al. 2018

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

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“…Furthermore, climate mitigation measures often include the use of biofuel crops, which can significantly influence human land use (Smith et al, 2013;Humpenöder et al, 2015;Popp et al, 2017). On the other hand, land-use change is known to have bio-geophysical and bio-geochemical effects on the earth system (Mahmood et al, 2014;Chen and Dirmeyer, 2016;Smith et al, 2016), as changes in land use bring about changes in surface heat and water budget, which, in turn, affects air temperature and precipitation (Feddma et al, 2005;Findell et al, 2017;Hirsch et al, 2018). Changes in land use also affect the terrestrial carbon budget, thereby influencing the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere (Brovkin et al, 2013;Lawrence et al 2016;Le Quéré et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

MIROC-INTEG1: A global bio-geochemical land surface model with human water management, crop growth, and land-use change

Yokohata¹,

Kinoshita²,

Sakurai³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Future changes in the climate system could have significant impacts on the natural environment and human activities, which in turn affect changes in the climate system. In the interaction between natural and human systems under climate change conditions, land use is one of the elements that play an essential role. Future climate change will affect the availability of water and food, which may impact land-use change. On the other hand, human land-use change can affect the climate system through bio-geophysical and bio-geochemical effects. To investigate these interrelationships, we developed MIROC-INTEG1 (MIROC INTEGrated terrestrial model version 1), an integrated model that combines the global climate model MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) with water resources, crop production, land ecosystem, and land use models. In this paper, we introduce the details and interconnections of the sub-models of MIROC-INTEG1, compare historical simulations with observations, and identify the various interactions between sub-models. MIROC-INTEG1 makes it possible to quantitatively evaluate the feedback processes or nexus between climate, water resources, crop production, land use, and ecosystem, and to assess the risks, trade-offs and co-benefits associated with future climate change and prospective mitigation and adaptation policies.

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Biogeophysical Impacts of Land‐Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low‐Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI‐Land

Cited by 40 publications

References 43 publications

Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century

Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

MIROC-INTEG1: A global bio-geochemical land surface model with human water management, crop growth, and land-use change

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