Biogeophysical and biogeochemical impacts of land-use change simulated by MIROC-ES2L

Abstract

Land-use change is one of the focal processes in Earth system models because it has strong impacts on terrestrial biogeophysical and biogeochemical conditions. However, modeling land-use impacts is still challenging because of model complexity and uncertainty. This study examined the results of simulations of land-use change impacts by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Earth System version 2 for long-term simulations (MIROC-ES2L) conducted under the Land-Use Model Intercomparison Project protocol. In a historical experiment, the model reproduced biogeophysical impacts such as decreasing trends in land-surface net radiation and evapotranspiration by about 1970. Among biogeochemical impacts, the model captured the global decrease of vegetation and soil carbon stocks caused by extensive deforestation. By releasing ecosystem carbon stock to the atmosphere, land-use change shortened the mean residence time of terrestrial carbon and accelerated its turnover rate, especially in low latitudes. Future projections based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways indicated substantial alteration of land conditions caused primarily by climatic change and secondarily by land-use change. Sensitivity experiments conducted by exchanging land-use data between different future projection baseline experiments showed that, at the global scale, the anticipated extent of land-use conversion would likely play a modest role in the future terrestrial radiation, water, and carbon budgets. Regional investigations revealed that future land use would exert a considerable influence on runoff and vegetation carbon stock. Further model refinement is required to improve its capability to analyze its complicated terrestrial linkages or nexus (e.g., food, bioenergy, and carbon sequestration) to climate-change impacts.

Preface for “Projection and impact assessment of global change”

“…Taking advantage of the characteristics of ESM to deal with forest dynamics, Ito and Hajima (2020) have shown that land use change due to human activities has a considerable impact on the runoff of soil moisture to rivers and vegetation biomass. Land use change deserves attention as a process that excites the interaction between human society and climate change.…”

A Combined Approach to the Assessment of the Level of Pollution and Toxicity by Macro- and Trace Elements of the Territories of Armenia with Different Anthropogenic Loads

“…The country's climate varies due to factors such as its location, atmospheric circulation and mountainous terrain, as well as the height and position of the mountains. Under conditions of increasing anthropogenic impact on nature, potential changes in the environment are manifested primarily in the biogeochemical processes of land cover [1]. Changes in climatic conditions have a profound effect on soil formation processes [2].…”

Limited Mitigation Potential of Forestation Under a High Emissions Scenario: Results From Multi‐Model and Single Model Ensembles

“…Forestation and deforestation affect the climate in two main ways (Ito & Hajima, 2020; Pongratz et al., 2010; Zhu et al., 2023). Firstly, by biogeochemical effects, that is, changes to the global carbon cycle and carbon storage pools that affect atmospheric CO 2 concentration and, therefore, the radiative absorption of the atmosphere.…”