Bioclimatic Envelopes for Two Bat Species from a Tropical Island: Insights on Current and Future Distribution from Ecological Niche Modeling

Fruit bats serve as crucial bioindicators, seed dispersers, pollinators, and contributors to food security within ecosystems. However, their population and distribution were threatened by climate change and anthropogenic pressures. Understanding the impacts of these pressures through mapping distribution and habitat suitability is crucial for identifying high‐priority areas and implementing effective conservation and management plans. We predicted the distribution and extent of habitat suitability for Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus under climate change scenarios using average predictions from four different algorithms to produce an ensemble model. Seasonal precipitation, population index, land‐use land cover, vegetation, and the mean temperature of the driest quarter majorly contributed to the predicted habitat suitability for both species. The current predicted sizes of suitable habitats for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus were varied, on average 60,271.4 and 85,176.1 km2, respectively. The change in species range size for R. aegyptiacus showed gains in suitable areas of 24.4% and 22.8% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, for E. labiatus, suitable areas decreased by 0.95% and 2% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. The range size change of suitable areas between 2050 and 2070 for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus shows losses of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. The predicted maps indicate that the midlands and highlands of southern and eastern Ethiopia harbor highly suitable areas for both species. In contrast, the areas in the northern and central highlands are fragmented. The current model findings show that climate change and anthropogenic pressures have notable impacts on the geographic ranges of two species. Moreover, the predicted suitable habitats for both species are found both within and outside of their historical ranges, which has important implications for conservation efforts. Our ensemble predictions are vital for identifying high‐priority areas for fruit bat species conservation efforts and management to mitigate climate change and anthropogenic pressures.

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Impact of climate change on the distribution and predicted habitat suitability of two fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus) in Ethiopia: Implications for conservation

Ahmed,

Bekele,

Kasso

et al. 2023

“…Studies across the world have reported negative impacts both globally (Bellard et al, 2013) and regionally (Rebelo et al, 2010, in Europe;Hughes et al, 2012, in Southeast Asia;Thapa et al, 2021, in Nepal). Bandara et al (2022) found no or limited effects for Kerivoula picta and K. malpasi in Sri Lanka. Positive effects have also been observed in the Amazon (Costa et al, 2018), North America (Hayes & Piaggio, 2018) and Nepal (Thapa et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…Bandara et al. ( 2022 ) found no or limited effects for Kerivoula picta and K. malpasi in Sri Lanka. Positive effects have also been observed in the Amazon (Costa et al., 2018 ), North America (Hayes & Piaggio, 2018 ) and Nepal (Thapa et al., 2021 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future climatically suitable areas for bats in South Asia

Srinivasulu,

Zeale,

Srinivasulu

et al. 2024

Climate change majorly impacts biodiversity in diverse regions across the world, including South Asia, a megadiverse area with heterogeneous climatic and vegetation regions. However, climate impacts on bats in this region are not well‐studied, and it is unclear whether climate effects will follow patterns predicted in other regions. We address this by assessing projected near‐future changes in climatically suitable areas for 110 bat species from South Asia. We used ensemble ecological niche modelling with four algorithms (random forests, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and maximum entropy) to define climatically suitable areas under current conditions (1970–2000). We then extrapolated near future (2041–2060) suitable areas under four projected scenarios (combining two global climate models and two shared socioeconomic pathways, SSP2: middle‐of‐the‐road and SSP5: fossil‐fuelled development). Projected future changes in suitable areas varied across species, with most species predicted to retain most of the current area or lose small amounts. When shifts occurred due to projected climate change, new areas were generally northward of current suitable areas. Suitability hotspots, defined as regions suitable for >30% of species, were generally predicted to become smaller and more fragmented. Overall, climate change in the near future may not lead to dramatic shifts in the distribution of bat species in South Asia, but local hotspots of biodiversity may be lost. Our results offer insight into climate change effects in less studied areas and can inform conservation planning, motivating reappraisals of conservation priorities and strategies for bats in South Asia.

“…SDM and HSM involves the selection of appropriate environmental variables (Scherrer & Guisan, 2019 ). Traditionally, climate variables, such as bioclimatic data, have been widely employed for SDM and HSM (e.g., Amini Tehrani et al., 2020 ; Bandara et al., 2022 ; Bellamy et al., 2020 ; Cable et al., 2021 ; Luo et al., 2020 ; Raman et al., 2020 ; True et al., 2021 ; Wright et al., 2021 ). However, for the assessment of habitat suitability within the geographic range of a species (area of habitat (AOH); Brooks et al., 2019 ; Lumbierres et al., 2022 ), climate conditions are not necessarily decisive (Pearson et al., 2004 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The devil is in the detail: Environmental variables frequently used for habitat suitability modeling lack information for forest‐dwelling bats in Germany

Bald,

Gottwald,

Hillen

et al. 2024

In response to the pressing challenges of the ongoing biodiversity crisis, the protection of endangered species and their habitats, as well as the monitoring of invasive species are crucial. Habitat suitability modeling (HSM) is often treated as the silver bullet to address these challenges, commonly relying on generic variables sourced from widely available datasets. However, for species with high habitat requirements, or for modeling the suitability of habitats within the geographic range of a species, variables at a coarse level of detail may fall short. Consequently, there is potential value in considering the incorporation of more targeted data, which may extend beyond readily available land cover and climate datasets. In this study, we investigate the impact of incorporating targeted land cover variables (specifically tree species composition) and vertical structure information (derived from LiDAR data) on HSM outcomes for three forest specialist bat species (Barbastella barbastellus, Myotis bechsteinii, and Plecotus auritus) in Rhineland‐Palatinate, Germany, compared to commonly utilized environmental variables, such as generic land‐cover classifications (e.g., Corine Land Cover) and climate variables (e.g., Bioclim). The integration of targeted variables enhanced the performance of habitat suitability models for all three bat species. Furthermore, our results showed a high difference in the distribution maps that resulted from using different levels of detail in environmental variables. This underscores the importance of making the effort to generate the appropriate variables, rather than simply relying on commonly used ones, and the necessity of exercising caution when using habitat models as a tool to inform conservation strategies and spatial planning efforts.