Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain

Gallego‐Sala, Angela; Clark, J. M.; House, Joanna Isobel; Orr, Harriet G.; Prentice, Iain Colin; Smith, Pete; Farewell, Timothy S.; Chapman, Stephen J.

doi:10.3354/cr00911

Cited by 111 publications

(99 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…We therefore used the ratio of actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration (α), which is widely used as an index of plant-available moisture (Prentice et al, 1993), as a surrogate for soil moisture. This index is calculated from the CRU TS3.1 climate data as described in Gallego-Sala et al (2010). Equilibrium evapotranspiration refers to the water loss from a large homogeneous area under constant atmospheric conditions.…”

Section: Environmental Predictor Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The availability of remotely sensed data in a number of active fires (Giglio et al, 2006;Bartlein et al, 2008) and burnt areas during the past decade makes it possible now to analyse the controls on wildfire on a global scale Aldersley et al, 2011;Daniau et al, 2012;Moritz et al, 2012;Knorr et al, 2014). Each of these studies considered different sets of potential controls and used different methods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Causal relationships versus emergent patterns in the global controls of fire frequency

et al. 2014

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Abstract. Global controls on month-by-month fractional burnt area (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) were investigated by fitting a generalised linear model (GLM) to Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) data, with 11 predictor variables representing vegetation, climate, land use and potential ignition sources. Burnt area is shown to increase with annual net primary production (NPP), number of dry days, maximum temperature, grazing-land area, grass/shrub cover and diurnal temperature range, and to decrease with soil moisture, cropland area and population density. Lightning showed an apparent (weak) negative influence, but this disappeared when pure seasonal-cycle effects were taken into account. The model predicts observed geographic and seasonal patterns, as well as the emergent relationships seen when burnt area is plotted against each variable separately. Unimodal relationships with mean annual temperature and precipitation, population density and gross domestic product (GDP) are reproduced too, and are thus shown to be secondary consequences of correlations between different controls (e.g. high NPP with high precipitation; low NPP with low population density and GDP). These findings have major implications for the design of global fire models, as several assumptions in current models -most notably, the widely assumed dependence of fire frequency on ignition rates -are evidently incorrect.

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Section: Environmental Predictor Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Causal relationships versus emergent patterns in the global controls of fire frequency

et al. 2014

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“…Bioclimatic modelling results have suggested that the areas suitable for British blanket peatlands may retreat towards the north and west with climate change to the end of the 21 st Century Gallego-Sala et al, 2010). The degradation of peatlands is therefore much more likely in these marginal areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Interestingly, Gallego-Sala et al (2010) found that temperature tended to be more important than precipitation and moisture index in the variation of the areal extent of the peat bioclimatic envelope through a sensitivity analysis of their PeatStash model.…”

Section: Climatic Drivers Of Changes In Blanket Peat Erosionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of blanket peat erosion across Great Britain under environmental change

Holden

Irvine

2015

Climatic Change

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A recently developed fluvial erosion model for blanket peatlands, PESERA-PEAT, was applied at ten sites across Great Britain to predict the response of blanket peat erosion to environmental change. Climate change to 2099 was derived from seven UKCP09 future projections and the UK Met Office's historical dataset. Land management scenarios were established based on outputs from earlier published investigations. Modelling results suggested that as climate changes, the response of blanket peat erosion will be spatially very variable across Great Britain. Both relative changes and absolute values of sediment yield were predicted to be higher in southern and eastern areas than in western and northern parts of Great Britain, peaking in the North York Moors of eastern England. Areas with high precipitation and low temperature were predicted to have low relative erosion changes and absolute sediment yield. The model suggested that summer desiccation may become more important for blanket peat erosion under future climate change, and that temperature was more dominant than precipitation in controlling long-term blanket peat erosion change. However, in the North York Moors, precipitation appeared to be more dominant in driving long-term erosion change. Land management measures were shown to provide a means to mitigate against the impacts of climate change on blanket peat erosion.

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“…11.11 Effects of temperature on methane (CH 4 ) efflux from 30 cm diameter Sphagnum papillosum mire cores. Flux measurements were performed in dark conditions (after Daulat and Clymo 1998) bogs in the UK Gallego-Sala et al 2010; Gallego-Sala and Prentice 2013, Fig. 11.12).…”

Section: Climatic Impacts On Biotic Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental Impacts—Terrestrial Ecosystems

Hölzel

Hickler

Kutzbach

et al. 2016

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment

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The chapter starts with a discussion of general patterns and processes in terrestrial ecosystems, including the impacts of climate change in relation to productivity, phenology, trophic matches and mismatches, range shifts and biodiversity. Climate impacts on specific ecosystem types-forests, grasslands, heathlands, and mires and peatlands-are then discussed in detail. The chapter concludes by discussing links between changes in inland ecosystems and the wider North Sea system. Future climate change is likely to increase net primary productivity in the North Sea region due to warmer conditions and longer growing seasons, at least if summer precipitation does not decrease as strongly as projected in some of the more extreme climate scenarios. The effects of total carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems are highly uncertain, due to the inherent complexity of the processes involved. For moderate climate change, land use effects are often more important drivers of total ecosystem carbon accumulation than climate change. Across a wide range of organism groups, range expansions to higher latitudes and altitudes and changes in phenology have occurred in response to recent climate change. For the range expansions, some studies suggest substantial differences between organism groups. Habitat specialists with restricted ranges have generally responded very little or even shown range contractions. Many of already threatened species could be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, effects of recent climate change on terrestrial ecosystems within the North Sea region are still limited.

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Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain

Cited by 111 publications

References 53 publications

Causal relationships versus emergent patterns in the global controls of fire frequency

Causal relationships versus emergent patterns in the global controls of fire frequency

Prediction of blanket peat erosion across Great Britain under environmental change

Environmental Impacts—Terrestrial Ecosystems

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