Bilaterial Equilibrium Exchange Rates of EU Accession Countries Against the Euro

Rahn, Jörg

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1015467

Cited by 32 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…In particular, the CPI-to-PPI ratio often used in the literature (see e.g. Coudert,1999;Alonso-Gamo et al, 2002;Burgess et al, 2003;Rahn, 2003) is even more affected by this problem given that the share of non-tradable goods in CPI is very low in the CEECs and because of the presence of regulated prices in the CPI. Égert, Lahrèche-Révil and Lommatzsch (2004) demonstrate this point.…”

Section: Data and Measurement Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues

2005

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In this paper we present an overview of a number of issues relating to the equilibrium exchange rates of transition economies of the former soviet bloc. In particular, we present a critical overview of the various methods available for calculating equilibrium exchange rates and discuss how useful they are likely to be for the transition economies. Amongst our findings is the result that the trend appreciation usually observed for the exchange rates of these economies is affected by factors other than the usual Balassa-Samuelson effect, such as the behaviour of the real exchange rate of the open sector and regulated prices. We then consider three main sources of uncertainty relating to the implementation of an equilibrium exchange rate model, namely: differences in the theoretical underpinnings; differences in the econometric estimation techniques; and differences relating to the time series and cross-sectional dimensions of the data. The ensuing three-dimensional space of real misalignments is probably a useful tool in determining the direction of a possible misalignment rather than its precise size.JEL: C15, E31, F31, O11, P17.

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Section: Data and Measurement Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues

2005

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“…5 See e.g. MacDonald (1998a,b), Coudert (1999), Rahn (2003) and Égert, MacDonald and Halpern (2006). 6 The data are from World Bank's World Development Indicators database.…”

Section: Resource Movement Spending Effect and Relative Pricesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dutch Disease in the post-soviet countries of Central and South-West Asia: How contagious is it?

Égert

2012

Journal of Asian Economics

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. This study seeks to determine the extent to which the former communist states of Central and South-West Asia are "infected" by the Dutch Disease. We take a detailed look at the functioning of the transmission mechanism of the Dutch Disease, i.e. the chains that run from commodity prices to real output in manufacturing. We complement this with two econometric exercises. First, we estimate nominal and real exchange rate models to see whether commodity prices are correlated with the exchange rate. Second, we run growth equations to analyse the possible effects of commodity prices and the dependency of economic growth on natural resources. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor mayJEL-Code: E310, F310, O110, P170.

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“…They are all rooted in the previous stage of the policy debate about exchange rate regimes, as outlined above. SRERs were initially estimated for industrial countries (see Artis, Taylor, 1993;Feyzioclu, 1997), and subsequently extended to developing countries (see Elbadawi, Soto, 1997;Mongardini, 1998 andMacDonald, Ricci, 2003) and to the former transition economies (see Halpern, Wyplosz, 1997;De Broeck, Sløk, 2001;Égert, 2002a, 2002bFrait, Komárek, 2001 andRahn, 2003). The FRER concept itself was first suggested in Šmídková, Barrel, Holland (2002).…”

Section: Sustainable and Fundamental Real Exchange Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us

Šmídková¹,

Bulı́ř²

2005

Prague Economic Papers

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Abstract:Computed fundamental real exchange rates in four new EU members point to difficulties in jointly entering the ERM II soon after the EU entry. Three currencies out of the four were overvalued prior to EU entry. Computations suggest that it is unlikely that the Czech, Hungarian and Polish economies will maintain low inflation during 2004 -2010 and at the same time keep their currencies within the ERM II easily. Moreover, the experience of Greece, Portugal and Spain -viewed through fundamental real exchange rate goggles -indicates more stable real exchange rate paths and smaller currency misalignments prior to euro adoption than can be expected from the newcomers in the forthcoming years. If the newcomers sail too fast towards the euro, their sailing may not be as smooth as that of the front runners.

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Bilaterial Equilibrium Exchange Rates of EU Accession Countries Against the Euro

Cited by 32 publications

References 26 publications

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues

Dutch Disease in the post-soviet countries of Central and South-West Asia: How contagious is it?

Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us

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