Bifurcation and optimal control analysis of HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 co-infection model with numerical simulation

Abstract

HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 co-infection is a common global health and socio-economic problem. In this paper, a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 co-infection that incorporates protection and treatment for the infected (and infectious) groups is formulated and analyzed. Firstly, we proved the non-negativity and boundedness of the co-infection model solutions, analyzed the single infection models steady states, calculated the basic reproduction numbers using next generation matrix approach and then investigated the existence and local stabilities of equilibriums using Routh-Hurwiz stability criteria. Then using the Center Manifold criteria to investigate the proposed model exhibited the phenomenon of backward bifurcation whenever its effective reproduction number is less than unity. Secondly, we incorporate time dependent optimal control strategies, using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle to derive necessary conditions for the optimal control of the disease. Finally, we carried out numerical simulations for both the deterministic model and the model incorporating optimal controls and we found the results that the model solutions are converging to the model endemic equilibrium point whenever the model effective reproduction number is greater than unity, and also from numerical simulations of the optimal control problem applying the combinations of all the possible protection and treatment strategies together is the most effective strategy to drastically minimizing the transmission of the HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 co-infection in the community under consideration of the study.

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“…Using the criteria applied by references, 6 , 12 , 29 , 31 , 41 , 54 item (c) of Theorem 6 indicates bifurcation of the dynamical system ( 11 ) in the backward direction whenever . The basic requirement having the sub-model ( 11 ) effective reproduction number although is necessary, is not sufficiently enough to the complete control of the COVID-19 infection spreading in the community.…”

Analysis of optimal control strategies on the fungal Tinea capitis infection fractional order model with cost-effective analysis

“…Analyses of mathematical modeling for real world situations have been the most important tool in understanding of different aspects of the real world phenomenon 22 , 23 . Different researchers have been formulated and analyzed a mathematical model for system dynamics in different research topics such as social sciences, natural sciences and other sciences, see scholars studies 24 – 54 .…”