Bidirectional contact tracing could dramatically improve COVID-19 control

Bradshaw, William J.; Alley, Ethan C.; Huggins, Jonathan H.; Lloyd, Alun L.; Esvelt, Kevin M.

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-20325-7

Cited by 125 publications

(135 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Test-trace-isolate (TTI) strategies have been widely used to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 9 . Models by the present authors 10 and others 11 have found that incorporating backwards tracing to identify infector individuals could dramatically increase the efficacy of tracing programs. However, testing delays, mistrust, and low compliance have undermined the confidence of health authorities in the benefits of TTI 12,13 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 70%

“…In our branching-process model 10 , each case generates a number of new cases drawn from a negative binomial distribution according to pre-specified incubation-and generation-time distributions (Table 1). Cases are identified and isolated based on symptoms alone or through contact tracing.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given the current low prevalence of the variants in most jurisdictions and the ability to identify cases of the new variant using existing testing infrastructure, we hypothesized that TTI programs dedicated to controlling them could substantially reduce the harm inflicted prior to widespread vaccination of populations later in 2021, especially if vaccine reformulation is needed. Such programs could be enhanced through incorporation of bidirectional tracing 10 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To evaluate the potential benefits of applying targeted testtrace-isolate to control variants, we applied a branching-process model of COVID-19 contact tracing 10 to estimate the change in the effective reproduction number achievable across a wide range of parameters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The feasibility of targeted test-trace-isolate for the control of SARS-CoV-2 variants

et al. 2021

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The SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 reportedly exhibits substantially higher transmission than the ancestral strain and may generate a major surge of cases before vaccines become widely available, while the P.1 and B.1.351 variants may be equally transmissible and also resist vaccines. All three variants can be sensitively detected by RT-PCR due to an otherwise rare del11288-11296 mutation in orf1ab; B.1.1.7 can also be detected using the common TaqPath kit. Testing, contact tracing, and isolation programs overwhelmed by SARS-CoV-2 could slow the spread of the new variants, which are still outnumbered by tracers in most countries. However, past failures and high rates of mistrust may lead health agencies to conclude that tracing is futile, dissuading them from redirecting existing tracers to focus on the new variants. Here we apply a branching-process model to estimate the effectiveness of implementing a variant-focused testing, contact tracing, and isolation strategy with realistic levels of performance. Our model indicates that bidirectional contact tracing can substantially slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants even in regions where a large fraction of the population refuses to cooperate with contact tracers or to abide by quarantine and isolation requests.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 70%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The feasibility of targeted test-trace-isolate for the control of SARS-CoV-2 variants

et al. 2021

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“…Averaged over 100 rollouts of the epidemiological simulations, the line represents the sensitivity (true positive rate) and specificity (true negative rate) achieved across operating thresholds of the system. Moreover, in principle, PanCast also allows for the implementation of backward contact tracing (25), where not only contacts of the positively tested individual get traced, but also the contacts of their contacts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Listening to Bluetooth Beacons for Epidemic Risk Mitigation

Barthe

Viti

Druschel

et al. 2021

Preprint

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During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, there have been burgeoning efforts to develop and deploy smartphone apps to expedite contact tracing and risk notification. Unfortunately, the success of these apps has been limited, partly owing to poor interoperability with manual contact tracing, low adoption rates, and a societally sensitive trade-off between utility and privacy. In this work, we introduce a new privacy-preserving and inclusive system for epidemic risk assessment and notification that aims to address the above limitations. Rather than capturing pairwise encounters between smartphones as done by existing apps, our system captures encounters between inexpensive, zero-maintenance, small devices carried by users, and beacons placed in strategic locations where infection clusters are most likely to originate. Epidemiological simulations using an agent-based model demonstrate several beneficial properties of our system. By achieving bidirectional interoperability with manual contact tracing, our system can help control disease spread already at low adoption. By utilizing the location and environmental information provided by the beacons, our system can provide significantly higher sensitivity and specificity than existing app-based systems. In addition, our simulations also suggest that it is sufficient to deploy beacons in a small fraction of strategic locations for our system to achieve high utility.

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Healthcare use and RT‐PCR testing during the first wave of the COVID‐19 pandemic in Japan

Kurihara¹,

Kamata

Nakahara³

et al. 2021

J of Gen and Family Med

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Background Rapid testing, tracing, and isolation among symptomatic patients are the standard for controlling the COVID‐19. However, during spring 2020, Japan employed a RT‐PCR test policy by using a guideline, which was used for the public to visit hospitals or clinics when they had mild symptoms for 4 days or longer (“4‐day rule”) among low‐risk patients. It is unknown of patients’ experience of healthcare use and testing during the period under the guideline. Thus, we investigated the healthcare visiting and testing among patients who developed cold‐like symptoms during the period. Methods Our survey was conducted online in September 2020 to a nationally representative sample of adults throughout Japan. We investigated the public's understanding of the guideline. In addition, we asked their experience with healthcare use and testing if they had noticed new‐onset cold‐like symptoms. Results Of 2,137 people surveyed, 1,698 (79.5%) recognized the guidelines, but 422 people (19.7%) misunderstood. There were 144 (6.7% of 2,137 people) who developed cold‐like symptoms, and many of them experienced difficulties in getting through telephone calls to a public health center, and 25 (17% of 144 people) visited healthcare institutions. Of these 25 symptomatic patients, 15 (60%) could not receive testing because of decisions by physicians (14 patients) or a local public health center (1 patient). Conclusion There was a low use of healthcare and testing among symptomatic patients during the first wave of the pandemic in Japan. Testing capacity should be increased to provide effective care for patients with suspected COVID‐19 in Japan.

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Bidirectional contact tracing could dramatically improve COVID-19 control

Cited by 125 publications

References 39 publications

The feasibility of targeted test-trace-isolate for the control of SARS-CoV-2 variants

The feasibility of targeted test-trace-isolate for the control of SARS-CoV-2 variants

Listening to Bluetooth Beacons for Epidemic Risk Mitigation

Healthcare use and RT‐PCR testing during the first wave of the COVID‐19 pandemic in Japan

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