Bicentennial Decrease of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to Unbalanced Thermal Budget of the Earth and the Little Ice Age

Abstract

Temporal changes in the power of the longwave radiation of the system Earth-atmosphere emitted to space always lag behind changes in the power of absorbed solar radiation due to slow change of its enthalpy. That is why the debit and credit parts of the average annual energy budget of the terrestrial globe with its air and water envelope are practically always in an unbalanced state. Average annual balance of the thermal budget of the system Earth-atmosphere during long time period will reliably determine the course and value of both an energy excess accumulated by the Earth or the energy deficit in the thermal budget which, with account for data of the TSI forecast, can define and predict well in advance the direction and amplitude of the forthcoming climate changes. From early 90s we observe bicentennial decrease in both the TSI and the portion of its energy absorbed by the Earth. The Earth as a planet will henceforward have negative balance in the energy budget which will result in the temperature drop in approximately 2014. Due to increase of albedo and decrease of the greenhouse gases atmospheric concentration the absorbed portion of solar energy and the influence of the greenhouse effect will additionally decline. The influence of the consecutive chain of feedback effects which can lead to additional drop of temperature will surpass the influence of the TSI decrease. The onset of the deep bicentennial minimum of TSI is expected in 2042±11, that of the 19 th Little Ice Age in the past 7500 years -in 2055±11.

Stiva Cave: A New Discover Of Prehistoric Hominid Underwater Cave

“…It must be good to be shelter. After the Pleistocene ending, the global temperature is rising faster and make the ice in earth polar melting faster (Abdussamatov, 2011;Geyh, et al, 1979;Sathiamurthy and Voris, 2006). The implication of that, sea level rising faster and reach into recent sea level.…”

Will a New Little Ice Age Begin in the Next Few Decades?

“…Some predictions, such as those by Abdussamatov (2007Abdussamatov ( , 2012 are in sharp disagreement with the projected warming (IPCC, 2007). Abdussamatov's (2007Abdussamatov's ( , 2012 conclusions are based on the data of total solar irradiance (TSI) measurement predicting global cooling and the beginning of a new Little Ice Age in the first part of the current century. This theory relies on the following chain of reasoning:…”

“…Thus, some authors (Haigh, 2009;Mordvinov, 2010) believe that measurement uncertainty makes it practically impossible to establish the existence of any secular variation in solar luminosity during the last three cycles. Consequently the idea that the amount of solar radiation hitting the Earth is constantly decreasing since the end of the 70s (Abdussamatov, 2007(Abdussamatov, , 2012 has only limited experimental support, at least at present. A quasi 11-year variation is the only cyclicity, the presence of which in TSI has been established absolutely reliably and unequivocally.…”

“…Correspondingly the prediction of TSI for the next three cycles by Abdussamatov (2012) seems to be principally flawed and incorrect. Abdussamatov (2012) made the forecast using the following procedure: (a) take the PMOD series, (b) ascribe the descending tendency in the smoothed value of TSI in the minima between the cycles 21/22, 22/23 and 23/24 (see Fig. 1A) fully to a bi-centennial cycle and then (c) extrapolate the 200-year periodicity till the second part of the 21 st century.…”

“…The global temperature forecast of Abdussamatov (2012) is based on the assumption that all periods of significant climate changes found during the last several millennia were caused by bi-centennial quasi-periodic TSI variations. This supposition is not supported by the data of paleoclimatology.…”