Biases in judgmental adjustments of statistical forecasts: The role of individual differences

Eroglu, Cuneyt; Croxton, Keely L.

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.02.005

“…Mello (2009) analyzes the biases introduced by means of forecast game playing, defined as the intentional manipulation of forecasting processes to gain personal, group, or corporate advantage. Eroglu and Croxton (2009) explore the effects of particular individual differences and suggest that a forecaster's personality and motivational orientation influence significantly the forecasting biases. Since the companies in the supply chain are interdependent, the bias introduced into sales forecasts by one company affects the rest of companies along the chain.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear identification of judgmental forecasts effects at SKU level

Trapero

¹

,

Fildes

²

,

Davydenko

³

2010

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Prediction of demand is a key component within supply chain management. Improved accuracy in forecasts affects directly all levels of the supply chain, reducing stock costs and increasing customer satisfaction. In many application areas, demand prediction relies on statistical software which provides an initial forecast subsequently modified by the expert's judgment. This paper outlines a new methodology based on State Dependent Parameter (SDP) estimation techniques to identify the non-linear behaviour of such managerial adjustments. This non-parametric SDP estimate is used as a guideline to propose a non-linear model that corrects the bias introduced by the managerial adjustments. One-step-ahead forecasts of SKU sales sampled monthly from a manufacturing company are utilized to test the proposed methodology. The results indicate that adjustments introduce a non-linear pattern undermining accuracy. This understanding can be used to enhance the design of the Forecasting Support System in order to help forecasters towards more efficient judgmental adjustments.

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“…Issue 2 to-experience personality trait were significantly more influenced by anchoring cues relative to participants low in this trait, and Eroglu and Croxton (2010) found that those high on agreeableness and conscientiousness but low on extroversion were more susceptible to anchoring. In contrast, Furnham et al (2012) found no significant interaction between anchoring cues and the personality traits of openness-toexperience.…”

Section: Volumementioning

confidence: 92%

Untitled

2015

THCI

0

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Abstract:Personalization is an effective means for accommodating differences between individuals. Therefore, the personalization of a system's user interface (UI) features can enhance usability. To date, UI personalization approaches have been largely divorced from psychological theories of personality, and the user profiles constructed by extant personalization techniques do not map directly onto the fundamental personality traits examined in the psychology literature. In line with recent calls to ground the design of information systems in behavioral theory, we maintain that personalization that is informed by psychology literature is advantageous. More specifically, we advocate an approach termed "personalityzation", where UI features are adapted to an explicit model of a user's personality. We demonstrate the proposed personalityzation approach through a proof-of-concept in the context of social recommender systems. We identify two key contributions to information systems research. First, extending prior works on adaptive interfaces, we introduce a UI personalization framework that is grounded in psychology theory of personality. Second, we reflect on how our proposed personalityzation framework could inform the discourse in design research regarding the theoretical grounding of system's design.

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“…Beyond personality traits, additional personal characteristics (for instance, motivation) could be employed in the design of adaptive UI (Nov, Arazy, Lotts, & Naberhaus, 2013b). A second contribution of our work is in showing how HCI design can serve as a large-scale experimental tool for testing hypotheses from psychology (e.g., the interaction between personality and social anchoring; see (Eroglu & Croxton, 2010;Furnham, Boo, & McClelland, 2012)). Given the potential negative relationship between personalization and predictability (Jameson, 2008), HCI research could investigate the impact of contextual menus such as those used by software programs (for example, Microsoft Office 2013).…”

Section: Volume 7 Issuementioning

confidence: 99%

Personalityzation: UI Personalization, Theoretical Grounding in HCI and Design Research

Arazy¹,

Nov²,

Kumar³

2015

THCI

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Abstract:Personalization is an effective means for accommodating differences between individuals. Therefore, the personalization of a system's user interface (UI) features can enhance usability. To date, UI personalization approaches have been largely divorced from psychological theories of personality, and the user profiles constructed by extant personalization techniques do not map directly onto the fundamental personality traits examined in the psychology literature. In line with recent calls to ground the design of information systems in behavioral theory, we maintain that personalization that is informed by psychology literature is advantageous. More specifically, we advocate an approach termed "personalityzation", where UI features are adapted to an explicit model of a user's personality. We demonstrate the proposed personalityzation approach through a proof-of-concept in the context of social recommender systems. We identify two key contributions to information systems research. First, extending prior works on adaptive interfaces, we introduce a UI personalization framework that is grounded in psychology theory of personality. Second, we reflect on how our proposed personalityzation framework could inform the discourse in design research regarding the theoretical grounding of system's design.

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Biases in judgmental adjustments of statistical forecasts: The role of individual differences

Cited by 90 publications

References 45 publications

Nonlinear identification of judgmental forecasts effects at SKU level

Nonlinear identification of judgmental forecasts effects at SKU level

Untitled

Personalityzation: UI Personalization, Theoretical Grounding in HCI and Design Research

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