Biases in future-oriented Delphi studies: A cognitive perspective

Internal and external factors of competitiveness shaping the future of wooden multistory construction in Finland and Sweden

“…There are limitations in Delphi technique and throughout the years, the method has faced a lot of criticism (e.g., Hung et al, 2008). Winkler and Moser (2016) identified the most frequent and impactful cognitive biases in Delphi studies to be framing bias (i.e., how the issue is presented or modified has influence on the person's assessment of the issue), anchoring bias (i.e., estimation of a value for a variable referring to a known previous value), desirability bias (i.e., the informant's stance towards the events desirability may influence on the judgement of the likeliness of an event to take place), and bandwagon effect (i.e., influence of the behavior of group or the majority to the informant's behavior or opinion, that bases on the information that the majority behaves or thinks in certain way), and belief perseverance (i.e., the decision maker's aptitudewhen receiving a unconfirmatory adviceto overweight their own judgmental performance and underweight the advice available).…”

How Will We Dine? Prospective Shifts in International Haute Cuisine and Innovation beyond Kitchen and Plate

“…However, the goal of a Delphi study is the convergence of opinions expressed and the reduction of scattering in order to reach consensus [ 52 ]. Another issue of Delphi studies is the desirability bias, which means that the experts might rate the projections according to their subjective hopes and wishes rather than the objective expected occurrence [ 60 , 62 ]. This problem diminishes, like in this study, with a higher number of experts, who are unlikely to have the same hopes and wishes for the future.…”

“…The method builds on the idea that group assessments about projections (statements about the future) are more accurate than individual assessments and that experts can give more accurate assessments than laypersons [ 58 , 59 ]. As cognitive biases are reduced during the Delphi process [ 58 , 60 , 61 , 62 ], Delphi studies are attributed a high forecast accuracy [ 63 ].…”

Is the Delphi method valid for business ethics? A survey analysis

“…Following Okoli & Pawlowski [51], the choice of experts is one of the most valuable elements for achieving a successful result when applying a Delphi method; the papers reviewed above have covered the selection process and criteria exhaustively (e.g., [5,58]). Depending on the selection of experts, whatever their expertise and the criterion on which this decision is based, the results will either be useful or simply biased by this process [68]. Secondly, the Delphi process can be continuously iterated until consensus is achieved or disruptions of positions are clear, although a three-round Delphi method is acceptable to the experts [17].…”