Fluid losses into
formations are a common operational issue that
is frequently encountered when drilling across naturally or induced
fractured formations. This could pose significant operational risks,
such as well control, stuck pipe, and wellbore instability, which,
in turn, lead to an increase in well time and cost. This research
aims to use and evaluate different machine learning techniques, namely,
support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and K nearest neighbor
(K-NN) in predicting the loss of circulation rate (LCR) while drilling
using solely mechanical surface parameters and interpretation of the
active pit volume readings. Actual field data of seven wells, which
had suffered partial or severe loss of circulation, were used to build
predictive models with an 80:20 training-to-test data ratio, while
Well No. 8 was used to compare the performance of the developed models.
Different performance metrics were used to evaluate the performance
of the developed models. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) and correlation
coefficient (
R
) were used to evaluate the performance
of the models in predicting the LCR while drilling. The results showed
that K-NN outperformed other models in predicting the LCR in Well
No. 8 with an
R
of 0.90 and an RMSE of 0.17.