Beyond the new normal: Assessing the feasibility of vaccine-based suppression of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

As the COVID-19 pandemic drags into its second year, there is hope on the horizon, in the form of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines which promise disease suppression and a return to pre-pandemic normalcy. In this study we critically examine the basis for that hope, using an epidemiological modeling framework to establish the link between vaccine characteristics and effectiveness in bringing an end to this unprecedented public health crisis. Our findings suggest that a return to pre-pandemic social and economic conditions without fully suppressing SARS-CoV-2 will lead to extensive viral spread, resulting in a high disease burden even in the presence of vaccines that reduce risk of infection and mortality. Our modeling points to the feasibility of complete SARS-CoV-2 suppression with high population-level compliance and vaccines that are highly effective at reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection. Notably, vaccine-mediated reduction of transmission is critical for viral suppression, and in order for partially-effective vaccines to play a positive role in SARS-CoV-2 suppression, complementary biomedical interventions and public health measures must be deployed simultaneously.

Heterogeneity in vaccinal immunity to SARS-CoV-2 can be addressed by a personalized booster strategy

“…A recurrent failing of the public-health strategy over the past two years has been to start with overly optimistic assumptions about the course of the pandemic, and to be slow to react to deviations from those assumptions. In fact, it was easy to predict that rapid viral immune evasion would be a problem [12], and it was easy to predict that the current vaccines alone would not bring the pandemic to an end [55]. At this point, our work suggests that we need to move quickly to bolster the protection provided by vaccines-by exploring dose and schedule effects of existing vaccines thoroughly, as well as by deploying next-generation vaccines.…”

Endemicity is not a victory: the unmitigated downside risks of widespread SARS-CoV-2 transmission

“…These risks were in fact predictable. The impact of waning vaccinal immunity was identified as a threat to the feasibility of achieving vaccine-mediated herd immunity well before it came to pass 58,59 . The rapid emergence of immune evasion in response to widespread population immunity was predicted by us and others 10,60 , as was the infeasibility of relying on vaccines alone to permit a return to pre-pandemic conditions 58,61,62 .…”

Segurança alimentar e nutricional em tempos de COVID-19: uma revisão bibliográfica

“…Para conter a propagação do vírus em larga escala, as vacinas são fundamentais para o retorno à normalidade prépandêmica, devido a alta transmissão e mortalidade da doença. As vacinas têm como principal foco a diminuição da mortalidade, em especial para a proteção dos mais idosos que são mais vulneráveis à forma mais grave da doença (Stoddard, 2021). Research, Society and Development, v. 11, n. 3, e59911326895, 2022 (CC BY 4 O inquérito mostra ainda que a insegurança alimentar pode ter avançado mesmo para as pessoas que não viviam situação de pobreza, tendo como precursores as perdas do emprego e renda devido à crise econômica agravada pela Pandemia da COVID-19 (Rede Penssan, 2021).…”