Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing during and after Recessions in the Nordic Countries

Abstract

During the 2010s, fertility rates fell across the Nordic region. The onset of thesedeclines seems linked to the Great Recession of 2008–2009 but their continuation cannot easilybe linked to subsequent economic change. The 1990s, too, brought episodes of economic crisesto the Nordic region that were followed by different degrees of fertility decline. In this study,we provide an empirical overview of parity-, age- and education-specific fertility developmentsin the five Nordic countries in the wake of the economic recessions in 2008 and the early 1990s,respectively. We demonstrate a high degree of heterogeneity in fertility developments acrosscountries after 1990, whereas after 2008, the trends are much more similar across the fivecountries. Likewise, the educational differences in birth hazards that characterized thedevelopments after 1990 were much smaller in the initial years after 2008–2009. This reversalfrom heterogeneity to homogeneity in the fertility response to recessions calls for an expansionof theories on the cyclicality of fertility in relation to uncertainty and economic and socialchange. In our discussion, we consider the role of a set of factors that also incorporates the state,crisis management, and perceptions of economic and welfare uncertainty.

Why fertility has been declining in Finland after the Global Recession?

“…Comparing the pattern in Finland with Norway does not provide easy answers either. Norway has the lowest levels of childlessness across all cohorts of women and men among the Nordic countries, while Finland has the highest levels (Jalovaara et al 2019).…”

“…The paper follows the path outlined by Huinink et al (2015) by considering the sources of complexity in the number and diversity of factors and mechanisms relating to fertility changes in a single country context. By reviewing a number of theories presented in Leridon's (2015) overview, we chose on the basis of previous literature (Hellstrand et al 2019;Mäki 2019;Jalovaara et al 2019) three older theories (micro-economic theory, gender equality theory and gender equity theory) and one newer theory (social interaction theory), which were considered as the most promising candidates to explain the fertility pattern in Finland between 2008 and 2019. These four commonly used theoretical approaches explain fertility in the Global North from economic, gender and social interaction perspectives (Leridon 2015;Jalovaara et al 2019).…”

“…By reviewing a number of theories presented in Leridon's (2015) overview, we chose on the basis of previous literature (Hellstrand et al 2019;Mäki 2019;Jalovaara et al 2019) three older theories (micro-economic theory, gender equality theory and gender equity theory) and one newer theory (social interaction theory), which were considered as the most promising candidates to explain the fertility pattern in Finland between 2008 and 2019. These four commonly used theoretical approaches explain fertility in the Global North from economic, gender and social interaction perspectives (Leridon 2015;Jalovaara et al 2019). They all acknowledge the fact that with available and effective birth control techniques fertility has entered the realm of conscious choice and that lower fertility can have perceived advantages in the prevailing economic and social environment.…”

“…The crucial issue is the extent to which income or price effect dominate in fertility decisions in a given context. Apart from direct income effects also perceived economic development may affect fertility (Comolli et al 2019). Uncertain employment prospects may increase family instability or cast doubt on couple's ability to provide for children.…”

“…From the micro-economy theory perspective, this makes the decline in fertility ever more surprising. After reviewing fertility trends in Nordic countries in the 1990s and 2010s Comolli et al (2019) conclude that economic theories do not suffice to explain a reversal from the heterogeneity of the 1990s to the homogeneity of the 2010s in the childbearing response to recession episodes across countries and socioeconomic groups. They call for expanding the theoretical framework to explain the cyclicality of fertility towards the perception of economic and welfare uncertainty.…”