Beyond Simple Trend Tests: Detecting Significant Changes in Design‐Flood Quantiles

Abstract

Design-floods for various return periods are required for water infrastructure design, and for implementing flood insurance. Hence, it is important to reliably estimate the design-flood-an overestimation will increase the total cost of construction, while an underestimation will result in higher risk than the designed probability of exceedance. Conventionally, T-year flood estimation assumes time-invariant flood distribution parameters (England et al., 2019). However, global climate change and local anthropogenic changes, such as urbanization, no longer allow for this assumption to hold (Salas & Obeysekera, 2014;Vogel et al., 2011). Many studies have now reported monotonic trends in observed flood time-series of annual maximum flows (AMF) across parts of the United

A Multiple Model Approach for Flood Forecasting, Simulation, and Evaluation Coupling in Zhouqu County

“…The estimation of flood risk entails a comprehensive assessment that considers numerous factors [30,31]. Due to the intricate interplay of natural, social, and economic…”

“…The estimation of flood risk entails a comprehensive assessment that considers numerous factors [30,31]. Due to the intricate interplay of natural, social, and economic factors in each region, there lacks a standardized quantitative criterion for certain aspects.…”