Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate

Abstract

Climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. Alarming predictions have come from a rather narrow methodological base, but a new, integrated science of climate-change biodiversity assessment is emerging, based on multiple sources and approaches. Drawing on evidence from paleoecological observations, recent phenological and microevolutionary responses, experiments, and computational models, we review the insights that different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of climate change, including the extent of species' natural resilience. We introduce a framework that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of conservation responses. Although much of the information reviewed is on species, our framework and conclusions are also applicable to ecosystems, habitats, ecological communities, and genetic diversity, whether terrestrial, marine, or fresh water.

Signatures of selection in mammalian clock genes with coding trinucleotide repeats: Implications for studying the genomics of high‐pace adaptation

“…A critical development in modeling a species’ natural resilience (Dawson et al., 2011) and implementing solutions (e.g., Thomas et al., 2012) is mapping and promoting environments to maintain critical standing adaptive genetic variation and the potential generation of novel adaptive alleles; cTNRs offer the potential to support both of these objectives. We present here a methodology by which we were able to identify cTNRs that are potentially the targets of natural selection in a range of mammal species, a taxonomic group underestimated in terms of vulnerability to climate change.…”

Adaptation to climate change – exploring the potential of locally adapted breeds

“…Projections for the 21st century indicate a continuation of existing trends, with accelerated loss of habitats and species, and changes in the distribution and abundance of species and biomes, all of which lead to degradation of the ecosystem services humanity depends upon CBD (2010). Anthropogenic disturbances may still exceed the effects of climate change at local level.Most assessments of climate change impact on wild and agricultural biodiversity have been based on range, climate envelope or empirical niche models, mostly centered on certain species (Lane and Jarvis, 2007;Williams et al, 2008;Dawson et al, 2011). Models rarely deal with both habitat change and population dynamics (Keith et al, 2008).…”

“…The emerging 'evolutionary community ecology' aims at assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in integrated frameworks that take into consideration ecological interactions in habitat and population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics and, finally, community or ecosystem functioning (Keith et al, 2008;Lavergne et al, 2010). These frameworks thus focus on species vulnerability, which is in turn influenced by species sensitivity and exposure (Williams et al, 2008;Dawson et al, 2011). Dawson et al (2011) define vulnerability as 'the extent to which a species or population is threatened with decline, reduced fitness, genetic loss, or extinction owing to climate change. '…”

“…These frameworks thus focus on species vulnerability, which is in turn influenced by species sensitivity and exposure (Williams et al, 2008;Dawson et al, 2011). Dawson et al (2011) define vulnerability as 'the extent to which a species or population is threatened with decline, reduced fitness, genetic loss, or extinction owing to climate change. ' Sensitivity is the 'degree to which the survival, persistence, fitness, performance, or regeneration of a species or population is dependent on the prevailing climate' (Dawson et al, 2011 Both are influenced by species ecology, physiology and genetic diversity.…”

“…Dawson et al (2011) define vulnerability as 'the extent to which a species or population is threatened with decline, reduced fitness, genetic loss, or extinction owing to climate change. ' Sensitivity is the 'degree to which the survival, persistence, fitness, performance, or regeneration of a species or population is dependent on the prevailing climate' (Dawson et al, 2011 Both are influenced by species ecology, physiology and genetic diversity. The following table provides an overview of the intrinsic factors influencing either of them.…”