Between a Rock and a Hard Place: How Lesser Powers Respond to Competing Great Powers in the Asia-Pacific Region

Abstract

In comparison to hegemony, lesser powers usually struggle for survival between two or more great powers under state power asymmetry, a perpetual phenomenon in international politics. With the rise of China and the increasingly strengthening role of the US in the Asia-Pacific region, it is important to learn how lesser powers manage their relations with the two. To explore this issue, we propose that the strength of state power will constrain the strategies of lesser powers as they choose between the US and China. Borrowing from existing theories and ideas on strategies that include balancing, bandwagoning, and hedging, we argue that the stronger a country’s power, the more likely it will choose a balancing strategy. At the same time, the weaker the country, the more likely that it will go with bandwagoning. Regional middle powers will show varied strategy choices, as they possess a higher degree of freedom in choosing which great power to side with. To validate these arguments, we construct two indicators — differences in trade dependence on the US and China and differences in the voting score consistent with the US and China — to quantify the strategies of lesser powers toward great powers and examine whether the variable of strategies follows the expected pattern. Our analysis shows that countries in the middle of the spectrum of state power demonstrated great freedom in choosing strategies toward the two powers.

ASEAN Amid Mekong's Overlap Institutions: Visible or Invisible?

“…Based on the Asia Power Index released by Lowy Institute (2023), Thailand and Vietnam are categorized as middle power countries, meanwhile Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos are categorized as small power countries. This resulted in the findings of Wang et al (2020), those middle and small power countries struggle to survive amid significant power activity. In addition, as discussed in the previous section, the state actors involved in the Mekong region pursue various national interests.…”