Best-fit probability distribution models for monthly rainfall of Northeastern Brazil

Ximenes, Patricia de Souza Medeiros Pina; Silva, Antônio Samuel Alves da; Ashkar, Fahim; Stošić, Tatijana

doi:10.2166/wst.2021.304

Cited by 12 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…For the calculation of the SPI, first, it is necessary to adjust the probability density function (pdf) to the dataset precipitation. Among several distributions proposed in the literature [57,58], the gamma distribution was adopted in this work because it is the most widely used to fit precipitation time series [39,59,60]. The gamma pdf is given by…”

Section: Standardized Precipitation Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space-Time Variability of Drought Characteristics in Pernambuco, Brazil

da Silva Júnior,

da Silva Araújo,

Stosic

et al. 2024

Water

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Drought is the most complex natural hazard that can occur over large spatial scales and during long time periods. It affects more people than any other natural hazard, particularly in areas with a dry climate, such as the semiarid region of the Brazilian Northeast (NEB), which is the world’s most populated dry area. In this work, we analyzed trends and the spatial distribution of drought characteristics (frequency, affected area, and intensity) based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on annual (SPI-12) and seasonal (SPI-3) scales. The study used monthly precipitation data recorded between 1962 and 2012 at 133 meteorological stations in Pernambuco State, Brazil, which is located in the eastern part of the NEB and has more than 80% of its territory characterized by a semiarid climate. The regions of Sertão, Agreste, and Zona da Mata of Pernambuco were considered for comparison. The Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests were used to detect the trend and determine its magnitude, respectively. The results indicated that annual droughts in the state of Pernambuco became more frequent from the 1990s onwards, with summer having the greatest spatial coverage, followed by winter, autumn, and spring. Sertão presented a greater number of stations with a significant positive trend in drought frequency. Regarding the drought-affected area, global events occurred in a greater number of years on an annual scale and during the summer. Trend analysis pointed to an increase in areas with drought events on both scales. As for the drought intensity, the entire state of Pernambuco experienced drought events with high intensity during the autumn. The relationship between drought characteristics indicated an increase in the affected area as the result of an increase in drought intensity.

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Section: Standardized Precipitation Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space-Time Variability of Drought Characteristics in Pernambuco, Brazil

da Silva Júnior,

da Silva Araújo,

Stosic

et al. 2024

Water

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“…In this work we would like to study efficiency of the new test compared with other tests. As well as, the probability distribution used in this research are Lognormal and Gamma distribution since these distributions are the best suited for describing important data in many regions, such as wind speed [6], rainfall [7][8] and solar radiation data [9][10].…”

Section: The Proposed Test Statisticmentioning

confidence: 99%

New Modified Anderson Darling Goodness of Fit Test for Lognormal and Gamma distributions

Neamvonk

Phuenaree

2023

AJAS

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The purpose of this study is to present the new modified Anderson-Darling goodness of fit test, and compare to the efficiency of three tests; Kolmogorov Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test and Zhang (2002) test. A simulation study is used to estimate the critical values at a significance level of 0.05. The type I error rate and test power are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 replicates. The data are generated from the specified distribution; i.e., Lognormal and Gamma distributions with sample size of 10, 20, 30, 50, 100 and 200. The results demonstrate that every test has control over the type I error probability. The new test has the highest power for two alternative hypotheses; Loglogistic and Logistic distributions. Moreover, when the alternative distribution is Normal distribution and the sample size is small, the new test has the highest power.

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“…[17] used the randomly collected data using sensor which is high costly and internet based, [17,31] used the tracking the pedestrian on the road by neglecting the traffic vehicles using the video recording method. [23,29] has analyze into the traffic data collected method and described the manual count method and described the manual method is low casting and risk-less technique to collect the data due to collection of specific vehicles, whiles in other method of collecting data, all types of vehicles including human movement is also count as traffic data. In this research the method of data collecting is manual method to collect the data on one path for a week.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation the Stochastic behaviour of the Traffic Flow: A Case Study of a Section of a Road

Mehboob Ali Jatoi,

Shakeel Ahmed Kamboh,

Oshaque Ali Abro

et al. 2024

VFAST trans. math.

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The stochastic behavior is one of the key for the current state of vehicles flow for the real time traffic behavior. This paper describe the study to investigate the stochastic behavior of real time traffic flow for a section of road using probability distribution fit over the section of road, the traffic data was collected for a week from 7:00 to 19:00 at the location Nawabshah Pakistan. The different distribution such as Normal, Lognormal, Weibull, Gamma, Exponential distribution was fit using MATLAB distribution fit by probability plot of traffic flow data. The same distribution was used for the goodness-of-fit tests by considering Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Kolmogorov-Smirnov modified, Anderson-Darling were used with p-values at 95% of confidence level and justification to accept the hypothesis test are accepted or rejects. The hypothesis accept for Normal, Weibull and Gamma distribution which accept the all hypothesis test and among these three accepted fit distribution the Normal probability distribution fit is most fitted distribution using the rank by p-value of the hypothesis tests. Keywords: Traffic flow, Goodness-of-fit, Probability Distributions, Nawabshah

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Best-fit probability distribution models for monthly rainfall of Northeastern Brazil

Cited by 12 publications

References 43 publications

Space-Time Variability of Drought Characteristics in Pernambuco, Brazil

Space-Time Variability of Drought Characteristics in Pernambuco, Brazil

New Modified Anderson Darling Goodness of Fit Test for Lognormal and Gamma distributions

Investigation the Stochastic behaviour of the Traffic Flow: A Case Study of a Section of a Road

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