Benefits and challenges of participatory methods in qualitative energy scenario development

Ernst, Anna; Biß, Klaus; Shamon, Hawal; Schumann, Diana; Heinrichs, Heidi

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.09.026

Cited by 53 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Other studies raise similar concerns, remarking that scenarios lack transparency in assumptions, methods, and drivers (Ernst et al, 2018). Without carefully scrutinising energy outlooks, in many cases, it is even impossible for readers to distinguish inputs and assumptions from endogenous model outputs.…”

Section: Transparency and Accountingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

Ansari¹,

Holz²,

al-Kuhlani³

2020

EEEP

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We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organisations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our study provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, numerical framework, qualitative elaboration) and quantitative energy system indicators at the global and regional (Europe, Asia-Pacific region, North America) level; (ii) numerous observations from a verbal analysis intended to stimulate future research; and (iii) the discussion of our own outlook. Among other conclusions, we find that scenarios essentially carrying forward current policies and/or trends lead to future worlds that do not meet the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement. Interestingly, there are both normative and exploratory scenarios reaching the Paris Agreement, and there is no consensus between outlooks on how to attain low-emission futures towards 2050. Some scenarios rely on a very strong role of renewables, others on a substantial role of negative emission technologies with fossil fuel use, yet others on assuming decreasing energy demand. There is a strong variation between outlooks with respect to transparency on scenario generation, modelling approach, and data. We argue that, in addition to transparency, the actual inclusion of a qualitative analysis of drivers and storylines helps ensure the political, social and technological feasibility of scenarios.

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Section: Transparency and Accountingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

Ansari¹,

Holz²,

al-Kuhlani³

2020

EEEP

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“…Also participatory simulation can be done on macro-, midi-, or microlevels. But at the same time, the participatory simulation includes "soft elements" [45]. As a method, that involves real people, participatory simulation can handle better when the reference system deals with social, political, and/or cultural aspects.…”

Section: Participatory Simulation Approach 31 What Is a Participatormentioning

confidence: 99%

Gamifying Project Procurement for Better Goal Incorporation

Kornevs¹,

Hauge²,

Meijer³

2020

Game Design and Intelligent Interaction

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Many services that we use daily, like healthcare, infrastructures, public transport, education, and others, are provided by the public sector. These services are provided using the project procurement process. In most cases, this process has a highly complex and dynamic interaction. It leads to issues, such as information asymmetry, over-specified tenders, not efficient feedback loops, etc. As a result, projects can rarely match to the objectives of organizations. This work explores the use of participatory simulation to help holistically investigate a project procurement process to incorporate better goals of organizations. Based on case studies from the Swedish road construction field, it can be concluded that participatory simulation is an effective approach to experiment with the effects of project procurement.

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“…The possibility to scrutinise model results is essential for credibility [64], and the development of public trust in the modelling results, particularly as participation of society in the design of energy pathways, becomes increasingly important [65]. Methods for stakeholder participation in transition processes towards sustainability are available and applied [66] although simultaneously creating new challenges [67].…”

Section: Scientific Standardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A qualitative evaluation approach for energy system modelling frameworks

et al. 2018

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Background: The research field of energy system analysis is faced with the challenge of increasingly complex systems and their sustainable transition. The challenges are not only on a technical level but also connected to societal aspects. Energy system modelling plays a decisive role in this field, and model properties define how useful it is in regard to the existing challenges. For energy system models, evaluation methods exist, but we argue that many decisions upon properties are rather made on the model generator or framework level. Thus, this paper presents a qualitative approach to evaluate frameworks in a transparent and structured way regarding their suitability to tackle energy system modelling challenges. Methods: Current main challenges and framework properties that potentially contribute to tackle these challenges are derived from a literature review. The resulting contribution matrix and the described application procedure is then applied exemplarily in a case study in which the properties of the Open Energy Modelling Framework are checked for suitability to each challenge. Results: We identified complexity (1), scientific standards (2), utilisation (3), interdisciplinary modelling (4), and uncertainty (5) as the main challenges. We suggest three major property categories of frameworks with regard to their capability to tackle the challenges: open-source philosophy (1), collaborative modelling (2), and structural properties (3). General findings of the detailed mapping of challenges and properties are that an open-source approach is a precondition for complying with scientific standards and that approaches to tackle the challenges complexity and uncertainty counteract each other. More research in the field of complexity reduction within energy system models is needed. Furthermore, while framework properties can support to address problems of result communication and interdisciplinary modelling, an important part can only be addressed by communication and organisational structures, thus, on a behavioural and social level. Conclusions: We conclude that the relevance of energy system analysis tools needs to be reviewed critically. Their suitability for tackling the identified challenges deserves to be emphasised. The approach presented here is one contribution to improve current evaluation methods by adding this aspect.

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Benefits and challenges of participatory methods in qualitative energy scenario development

Cited by 53 publications

References 52 publications

Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

Gamifying Project Procurement for Better Goal Incorporation

A qualitative evaluation approach for energy system modelling frameworks

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