Benefit cost analysis of an import access request

Cook, David

doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2007.09.002

Cited by 20 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…It follows that this pest, though not included in the database, might present a high risk of establishing in Australia. Further analysis utilizing habitat suitability modelling (Kriticos et al 2003), impact simulation modelling (Cook et al 2007), and benefit costs analysis (Cook 2008) may reveal more about the risk this species poses to Australia.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using a self-organizing map to predict invasive species: sensitivity to data errors and a comparison with expert opinion

Paini

Worner

Cook

et al. 2010

Journal of Applied Ecology

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Summary1. Predicting which species are more likely to invade a region presents significant difficulties to researchers and government agencies. Methods for estimating the risk of establishment are often qualitative and rely on consultation with experts and stakeholders. The inherent subjectivity of this process can lead to ambiguities in any estimate of a species' risk of establishment. 2. Using global presence ⁄ absence data of insect crop pests employed a self-organizing map (SOM) to categorize regions based on similarities in species assemblages. This technique enabled them to generate a list of species and rank them based on an index of the risk of establishment. However, the sensitivity of this risk list to errors in the presence ⁄ absence data has never been tested. 3. We evaluated the sensitivity of the SOM method by altering the original presence ⁄ absence data by increasing amounts and compared estimates of risk with those generated by a national coordinating body (Plant Health Australia) utilizing expert stakeholder opinion. 4. The risk list was unaffected by alterations of up to 20% of data over all regions. The error rate we detected in the data was within these limits. 5. Comparison with the expert stakeholder methodology revealed significant differences in the estimates of establishment risk. Further analysis of the Australian data revealed that a number of regions with strong trade links to Australia supported species assemblages similar to those in Australia, suggesting they are possible sources of pest species with high probability of establishment. 6. Synthesis and applications. This analysis confirms that the SOM methodology is a robust tool in the quantification of risk of establishment. In addition, SOMs can deliver a level of objectivity, which can complement current consultative processes employed by many biosecurity agencies around the world, providing a better overall assessment of invasion risk. This assessment can inform research and development funding decisions and incursion management plans for both government and host industries. While SOMs are utilized in this work for the prioritization of pest insects they can potentially be applied to any taxa (pest or native) or at any scale in which the data are available.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using a self-organizing map to predict invasive species: sensitivity to data errors and a comparison with expert opinion

Paini

Worner

Cook

et al. 2010

Journal of Applied Ecology

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“…Given the relatively close proximity of NZ apple producers to the Australian market, this suggests that the landed price of NZ apples is a reasonable proxy for the world price. Using figures from Cook (2008) as a guide, we assume that shipping costs (including loading and road freight costs) involved in transporting product from NZ to Australia are in the order of $400/T. Data from FAO (2009) from 2002 to 2006 were used to construct a linear time‐series to project a 2008 NZ farm gate price of $680/T.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…$1190/T), at which 2650T will be imported. Wholesale and retail marketing margins – Wholesale margins are specified as a pert distribution with a minimum value of 10 per cent, a most likely value of 20 per cent and a maximum value of 30 per cent. Retail margins are estimated using a pert distribution with a minimum value of 30 per cent, a most likely value of 45 per cent and a maximum value of 60 per cent (Cook 2008). Both wholesale and retail‐marketing margins are assumed constant in percentage terms.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the social welfare effects of New Zealand apple imports

Cook¹,

Carrasco²,

Paini³

et al. 2011

Aus J Agri & Res Econ

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International trade of agricultural products not only generates wealth but is also responsible for the introduction of invasive pests beyond their natural range. Comprehensive bioeconomic modelling frameworks are increasingly needed to assist in the resolution of import access disputes. However, frameworks that combine welfare analysis attributable to trade and invasive species spread management are lacking. This study provides a demonstration of how a comprehensive economic framework, which takes into account both the gains from trade and the costs of invasive species outbreaks, can inform decision-makers when making quarantine decisions. We develop a partial equilibrium trade model considering international trade and combine it with a stratified dispersal model for the spread and management of potential outbreaks of an invasive species. An empirical estimation is made of the economic welfare consequences for Australia of allowing quarantine-restricted trade in New Zealand apples to take place. The results suggest the returns to Australian society from importing New Zealand apples are likely to be negative. The price differential between the landed product with SPS measures in place and the autarkic price is insufficient to outweigh the increase in expected damage resulting from increased fire blight risk. As a consequence, this empirical analysis does not support the opening up of this trade.

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“…The flow of biosecurity‐related information between trading partners is also limited, giving rise to the tendency for governments to overlook net social and economic gains from trade due to unknown IAS risks. ( 73,74 ) For instance, in setting conditions of product entry to Australia, Biosecurity Australia refers to relevant standards set by the Codex Alimentarius Commission, the Office International des Epizooties (the World Organization for Animal Health), and the International Plant Protection Convention. However, the SPS Agreement allows these international standards to be exceeded when IRAs carried out by Biosecurity Australia deem additional measures to be necessary to reduce the risk of IAS incursion to a level consistent with the national appropriate level of protection.…”

Section: Australian Biosecuriy Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These models too are rarely used, but when combined with models of IAS impacts they effectively form a benefit‐cost framework for evaluating trade decisions. ( 73,74,76 ) The use of these analyses in trade decisions requires changes to the SPS Agreement to accommodate the use of consumer welfare analyses.…”

Section: Adaptive Preborder and Border Defensementioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptive Approaches to Biosecurity Governance

Cook¹,

Liu²,

Murphy³

et al. 2010

Risk Analysis

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This article discusses institutional changes that may facilitate an adaptive approach to biosecurity risk management where governance is viewed as a multidisciplinary, interactive experiment acknowledging uncertainty. Using the principles of adaptive governance, evolved from institutional theory, we explore how the concepts of lateral information flows, incentive alignment, and policy experimentation might shape Australia's invasive species defense mechanisms. We suggest design principles for biosecurity policies emphasizing overlapping complementary response capabilities and the sharing of invasive species risks via a polycentric system of governance.

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Benefit cost analysis of an import access request

Cited by 20 publications

References 12 publications

Using a self-organizing map to predict invasive species: sensitivity to data errors and a comparison with expert opinion

Using a self-organizing map to predict invasive species: sensitivity to data errors and a comparison with expert opinion

Estimating the social welfare effects of New Zealand apple imports

Adaptive Approaches to Biosecurity Governance

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