Belarus in the Wake of a Revolution: Domestic and International Factors

Abstract

This paper explores the political landscape of Belarus in the aftermath of the 2020 presidential elections, with a focus on both domestic and international factors behind the ongoing crisis. Lukashenko’s regime has a long record of sustaining its power by preserving elite unity, controlling elections, and/or using force against opponents. Therefore, massive fraud characterizing the 2020 presidential elections and brutal suppression of peaceful protests in its aftermath came as no surprise. Against this backdrop, the anti-government protests following the presidential elections raised a series of unanswered questions regarding both their domestic and foreign policy implications. The biggest question is whether the Belarusian civil society and opposition will prove powerful enough to overcome state repression and change the status quo in Europe’s “last dictatorship”. Worries remain about the Belarusian opposition’s emphasis on foreign policy continuity, meaning that Belarus is bound to remain in the orbit of the Russian authoritarian influence. The total fiasco of post-Velvet Revolution Armenian government both in terms of domestic and foreign policies, among others, further reveals the excruciating difficulties of a democratic statebuilding within the Russia-led socio-political order.