Behavioural Finance Efficiency Under the Influence of Country’s Economic Cycle

Adamauskas, Saulius; Krušinskas, Rytis

doi:10.5755/j01.ee.23.4.1416

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Harvey and Trimbur ( ) stated that the Hodrick–Prescott filter is a mathematical tool that can be used in macroeconomics to define the fluctuations of real economic cycle components in a particular time series. In a previous study (Adamauskas & Krušinskas, ), we noticed that this tool helps us to obtain a “gentle" non‐linear graphical sequence in the analysis of the sensibility of periodical fluctuations in both the short and long term. The sensibility of the trend is obtained under the modification of multiplier λ (the frequency of period) in the short term.…”

Section: Research Problem Methodology and Assumptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal timing for a technology shift in mature markets of mobile communication

Adamauskas

Krušinskas

2017

Strategic Change

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The new‐generation 5G mobile technology will likely have a business cycle of approximately 24–25 years. Investment timing in the adoption of new technologies is becoming crucial for science and technology‐based companies to remain competitive. Further investment timing depends on the companies’ current financial state. Mobile technology‐based companies have their own resource lifecycle in which technological changes are inevitable and depend on the uncertainty of the market.

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Section: Research Problem Methodology and Assumptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal timing for a technology shift in mature markets of mobile communication

Adamauskas

Krušinskas

2017

Strategic Change

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“…Considering the banks' environmental factors (Miller & Noulas, 1997) affirmed that the phase of the business cycle is an important determinant of bank profitability. Assessing the credit risk of loan applicants many statistical tools can be used to identify country's economical cycle periods, that help to get non-linear graphical sequence in the analysis of sensibility of periodical fluctuations in short and long terms (Adamauskas & Krusinskas, 2012). However, the interaction between financial and business cycles is not fully revealed and differs in different countries.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Economic Downturn on Banks’ Loan Portfolio Profitability

Mileris

2015

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The difference of financial institutions from other firms is the wide range of risks that these institutions meet with and must be able to manage. The macroeconomic environment undoubtedly has the impact on banks' performance results. This research analyzes the impact of the country's economic downturn on banks' loan portfolio profitability. The Lithuanian economic downturn in 2009-2010 negatively affected the banks' debtors abilities to repay their debts increasing the proportion of non-performing loans (NPLs) and reducing the banks' loan portfolio. Also the changes in the interbank interest rates and credit margins had the impact on the banks' interest income and expenses. The statistical analysis techniques allowed to characterize the dependence between macroeconomic indicators and the bank's loan portfolio profitability. Afterwards the factorial regression model was developed to predict the Lithuanian commercial banks' loan portfolio to GDP ratio according to the country's macroeconomic indicators. To assess the consistent patterns of loan portfolio profitability that are typical for the banking systems, the macroeconomic and banks' data of other EU countries was analyzed. Because the proportion of non-performing loans in banks is one of the main factors of their loan portfolio profitability, the association rules network was developed to visualize the dependence between NPLs and macroeconomic indicators. The analysis results affirmed the high sensitivity of NPLs ratio to the economic downturn in the EU countries with the imperfect macroeconomic indicators. It follows that banks in these countries assessing the credit risk of loan applicants must consider the possible changes in the macroeconomy, because they have the significant impact on banks' loan portfolio profitability in future periods.

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“…Many scholars valuated contribution of foreign banks in the development of the national economy: Claessens & Van Horen [10], Jimborean & Brack [11], Fiordelisi &, Marques-Ibanez and Molyneux [12], Ayranci [13], Hughes & Mester [14] and other. Commercial banks, being an important macroeconomic variable [15], Koutsomanol-Filippaki Margaritis and Staikouras [16], Adamauskas & Krusinskas [17], Sathye [18], Mileris, [19], Lakstutiene, Krusinskas and Platenkoviene [20], Crespo-Tenorio, Jensen and Rosas [21] can give incentives for economic growth. At the same time, the overall efficiency of the economy depends on how close financial relationships and interconnection with the real economy are [21,23].…”

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confidence: 99%

The Impact of the Activities of Non-Residents Banks on the National Economy

Dauylbaev

Kaliyeva

Tasmaganbetov

et al. 2020

Reports

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The paper examines the effectiveness of the operations of non-resident banks in Kazakhstan. Performance assessment of non-resident banks in the local banking market is based on the model developed by the authors. The model is based on the indicators of the system of national accounts, and includes three stages of analysis: evaluation of the impact on real economy, estimation of performance of the intermediation function of a bank and the assessment of the bank’s stability. The object of study is Russian commercial banks operating in the Republic of Kazakhstan. In the study, the major factors contributing to the development of Russian banks in the financial market of the Republic of Kazakhstan are identified. In the present day circumstances all countries in the world experience the impact of the dynamic processes of globalization and integration. It differs from country to country: these processes have a considerable, often adverse, impact on developing countries, as indicated by some prominent economists, for example, J. Stiglitz [1]. Promotion of regional economic integration in its essence is considered only with regard to trade and partly investment cooperation. At the same time, undeservedly less attention is paid to the activities of commercial banks as to important financial intermediaries participating in the replenishment process. In these circumstances, it is important to analyze the issues associated with the improvement of performance efficiency of non-resident bank in the Kazakhstan banking sector. The aim of the paper is to investigate the impact of the activities of non-resident banks on the national economy and to develop an adequate methodology for their efficiency assessment. The choice of the object has been determined by the following preconditions: integration economic development of the two countries; the transition of both countries to the innovative model of development and restructuring of the national economy, development of the legal and institutional infrastructure for establishment of the common financial area between the two counties; functioning of the Customs Union since 1 January, 2010, the presence of favorable financial conditions for the participation of Russian banks in the banking market of Kazakhstan and other factors. The research methods used in this paper are: systematic approach, statistical, logical, and comparative analysis of the scientific literature, the analysis of bank annual reports. The analysis revealed that the Russian banks in Kazakhstan are actively encouraging the sphere of circulation, increasing inflation in the country. The Russian banks in Kazakhstan contribute to increase of redistribution of incomes, but do not develop the real sector and its innovation component in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The object of the research is Russian banking capital in the Kazakhstan market. The choice of the object has been determined by the following pre-conditions: Integrated economic development of the two countries that provides for mutual commercial, economic, and cultural relations; The transition of both countries to the innovative model of economic development and restructuring of the national economy; Growing congruence between two countries with regard to the level of socio-economic development, selected models and resources for economic development; Cooperation between the countries under discussion in the field of the planned synchronization of the WTO accession process; Development of the legal and institutional infrastructure for establishment of the common financial area between the two counties; Functioning of the Customs Union since 1 January, 2010, and other factors. Financial pre-conditions for the development of the favorable environment for participation of the Russian banks in the Kazakhstan market include: Uniformity of taxation systems of both countries, establishment of the national taxation systems on the basis of the Tax Code and their unification, identical elements in the taxation systems, coordinated reforms of the taxation systems; Considerable uniformity in the field of state finances: codification and harmonization of budgeting legislation on common principles; Current macroeconomic indicators pointing at the convergence of the economic development trends in the two countries: inflation rate, average weighted rate on long-term loans, public debt, etc. The level of development of the two countries is similar considering basic economic indicators; Provision of sufficient economic stability as a necessary premise for implementation of coordinated structural reforms of the economies of the two countries; Transition of the economies of both countries to the innovative development model and establishment of the common innovation space based on the usage of production, intellectual, technical and scientific potential of two states; Harmonization and unification of customs tariff policies aimed at support of new manufacturing enterprises and increase of investment potential of particular industries and agriculture.

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Behavioural Finance Efficiency Under the Influence of Country’s Economic Cycle

Cited by 6 publications

References 12 publications

Optimal timing for a technology shift in mature markets of mobile communication

Optimal timing for a technology shift in mature markets of mobile communication

The Impact of Economic Downturn on Banks’ Loan Portfolio Profitability

The Impact of the Activities of Non-Residents Banks on the National Economy

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