Beating the House: Identifying Inefficiencies in Sports Betting Markets
Sathya Ramesh,
Ragib Mostofa,
Marco Bornstein
et al.
Abstract:Inefficient markets allow investors to consistently outperform the market. To demonstrate that inefficiencies exist in sports betting markets, we created a betting algorithm that generates above market returns for the NFL, NBA, NCAAF, NCAAB, and WNBA betting markets. To formulate our betting strategy, we collected and examined a novel dataset of bets, and created a non-parametric win probability model to find positive expected value situations. As the United States Supreme Court has recently repealed the feder… Show more
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