Bean Counters: The Effect of Soy Tariffs on Change in Republican Vote Share between the 2016 and 2018 Elections

Chyzh, Olga; Urbatsch, R.

doi:10.1086/709434

Cited by 16 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…57.Blanchard, Bown, and Chor 2019 also report that the Republican Party's electoral losses were largely driven by the agricultural sector. Chyzh and Urbatsch 2020 similarly find that soybean-producing counties were more likely to turn against the Republican Party.…”

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confidence: 81%

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Tariffs As Electoral Weapons: The Political Geography of the US–China Trade War

Kim¹,

Margalit

2021

Int Org

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In response to President Trump instigating conflict over trade with China, the Chinese government countered by issuing tariffs on thousands of products worth over USD 110 billion in US exports. We explore whether China's tariffs reflected a strategy to apply counterpressure by hurting political support for the president's party. We also assess the strategy's impact on the 2018 midterm elections and examine the mechanism underlying the resulting electoral shift. We find strong evidence that Chinese tariffs systematically targeted US goods that had production concentrated in Republican-supporting counties, particularly when located in closely contested Congressional districts. This apparent strategy was successful: targeted areas were more likely to turn against Republican candidates. Using data on campaign communications, local search patterns online, and an original national survey, we find evidence that voters residing in areas affected by the tariffs were more likely to learn about the trade war, recognize its adverse impact, and assign the Republicans responsibility for the escalating dispute. These findings demonstrate how domestic political institutions can be a source of vulnerability in interstate disputes.

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confidence: 81%

“…28.Amiti, Redding, and Weinstein 2019; Chyzh and Urbatsch 2020; Fajgelbaum et al 2020; Fetzer and Schwarz 2019.…”

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confidence: 99%

Tariffs As Electoral Weapons: The Political Geography of the US–China Trade War

Kim¹,

Margalit

2021

Int Org

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“…Two related papers touch on the relationship between the trade war and the 2018 elections. Fetzer and Schwarz (2019) briefly assess whether the trade shock influenced voting outcomes, and Chyzh and Urbatsch (2019) find a systematic pattern of Republican electoral losses in counties that produce more soybeans. Our results are consistent with these papers, but we are the first (as far as we know) to find evidence of disproportionate political responses in politically competitive counties, and to demonstrate the influence of agricultural subsidies and health insurance for voting patterns.…”

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confidence: 99%

Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?

Blanchard

Bown

Chor

2019

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We find that Republican candidates lost support in the 2018 congressional election in counties more exposed to trade retaliation, but saw no commensurate electoral gains from US tariff protection. The electoral losses were driven by retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products, and were only partially mitigated by the US agricultural subsidies announced in summer 2018. Republicans also fared worse in counties that had seen recent gains in health insurance coverage, affirming the importance of health care as an election issue. A counterfactual calculation suggests that the trade war (respectively, health care) can account for five (eight) of Republicans' lost House seats. JEL-Codes: F130, F140.

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“…The third and fourth models respectively assess the effects of long- and short-term COVID-19 case rates in the same manner as first and second models. In terms of accounting for other predictors of partisan electoral changes, we build on the standing county-level model assessing electoral changes from one election cycle to the next by Chyzh and Urbatsch ( 2020 ). Each model controls for potential constituency predictors of electoral outcomes during the 2020 election, such as the unemployment rate, population density, educational attainment, racial composition of the constituency, median income, constituency lagged Republican vote share, and the party of the governor.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nail in the Coffin or Lifeline? Evaluating the Electoral Impact of COVID-19 on President Trump in the 2020 Election

et al. 2022

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From the onset of the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in January 2020 to Election Day in November, the United States experienced over 9,400,000 cases and 232,000 deaths. This crisis largely defined the campaign between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump, centering on the Trump administration′s efforts in mitigating the number of cases and deaths. While conventional wisdom suggested that Trump and his party would lose support due to the severity of COVID-19 across the country, such an effect is hotly debated empirically and theoretically. In this research, we evaluate the extent to which the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic influenced support for President Trump in the 2020 election. Across differing modeling strategies and a variety of data sources, we find evidence that President Trump gained support in counties with higher COVID-19 deaths. We provide an explanation for this finding by showing that voters concerned about the economic impacts of pandemic-related restrictions on activity were more likely to support Trump and that local COVID-19 severity was predictive of these economic concerns. While COVID-19 likely contributed to Trump’s loss in 2020, our analysis demonstrates that he gained support among voters in localities worst affected by the pandemic. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11109-022-09826-x.

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Bean Counters: The Effect of Soy Tariffs on Change in Republican Vote Share between the 2016 and 2018 Elections

Cited by 16 publications

References 29 publications

Tariffs As Electoral Weapons: The Political Geography of the US–China Trade War

Tariffs As Electoral Weapons: The Political Geography of the US–China Trade War

Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?

Nail in the Coffin or Lifeline? Evaluating the Electoral Impact of COVID-19 on President Trump in the 2020 Election

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