Be Careful what You Count: Updating Legislative Turnover in the 50 States

Abstract

Legislative turnover is indicative of political careerism, district competitiveness, and the strength of the incumbency advantage. Although there are many examinations of legislative turnover in U.S. state legislatures, there has not been an update in nearly 2 decades. One limitation of the existing turnover measures is the inability to distinguish between naturally occurring turnover and the artificial turnover caused by term limits. In this research note, I present an update to legislative turnover from 2002 to 2018 and discuss the importance of using updated data, as well as avenues for future research.

Institutional Attachments and Patterns of Ambition in State Legislatures

“…Patterns of ambition should also be influenced by several legislature‐level factors. Legislatures with higher turnover , here measured as the average share of new members per session across the two decades covered in this study (Butcher 2022), have more frequent openings in both chambers and systematically different career patterns (Squire 1988). We also control for the possibility that legislative professionalism shapes ambition patterns (Berkman 1994), using the 2009 value of the Squire index (Squire 2017).…”

Already Gone: Retaining Women in State Legislatures

“…Before our examination on legislative turnover, we find it important to be clear about the definition of turnover in this particular examination. there are a number of ways to measure turnover, but the manner in which we do so should be driven by theory (Butcher 2022). For our analysis, we are interested in what institutional factors contribute to an overall decline in women's turnover, and as a result, we examine the number of women leaving the legislature regardless of the reason.…”

“…Legislative term limits present a unique barrier to office in the way that they restrict members from serving for long periods of time. While term limits themselves may not be a deterrent to legislative service, they do artificially create turnover by forcing members from office when they may have otherwise continued to serve (Butcher 2022).…”

“…in tracking down the differences in turnover rates we found that most of the differences were due to resignations or prematurely leaving office; in these instances we adjusted the rate of turnover. 14. turnover rates in states with term limits often appear higher because of the artificial turnover that is caused by term limits (see Butcher 2022).…”

“…14 14 Turnover rates in states with term limits often appear higher because of the artificial turnover that is caused by term limits (see Butcher 2022). …”