Bayesian spatio-temporal models for mapping TB mortality risk and its relationship with social inequities in a region from Brazilian Legal Amazon

Abstract

Background Reducing TB mortality is a great challenge in Brazil due to its territorial extension, cultural variations and economic and political crises, which impact the health system. This study aimed to estimate in space and time the risk of TB mortality and test its relationship with social inequities. Methods This was an ecological study that included deaths from TB between 2006 and 2016 in Cuiabá, Brazilian Legal Amazon. Bayesian models based on the integrated nested Laplace approximation approach were used to estimate spatio-temporal RRs. RRs for TB mortality were obtained according to the covariables representative of social inequities. Results The risk of TB mortality was stable between 2006 and 2016 and high-risk areas were identified throughout the municipality studied. Regarding social inequities, income was an important factor associated with TB mortality risk, as an increase of 1 SD in income resulted in a 35.4% (RR 0.646; CI 95% 0.476 to 0.837) decrease in risk. Conclusions The results provided evidence of areas with higher TB mortality risks that have persisted over time and are related to social inequities. Advancing social policies and protections in these areas will contribute to achieving the WHO's End TB strategy.