“…Of course, at the design stage many events are unknown; therefore, we have to extract information from the experts about the unknown quantity. Empirical Bayes methods may be of use in this context; see Lemon (1972), Yüceer and Inoue (1980), Tillman, Kuo, Hwang and Grosh (1982), Savchuk (1988), Ho and Pinheiro (2002), Denson, Keene and Caroli (1998), Vasconcelos and Lippman (1997) and Wang and Jia (2006).…”