Bayesian Probabilistic Population Projections for France

Costemalle, Vianney

doi:10.24187/ecostat.2020.520d.2031

Cited by 2 publications

References 67 publications

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Fertility Intensity and Timing

Doignon,

Blöss-Widmer,

Ambrosetti

et al. 2023

Population Dynamics in the Mediterranean

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This chapter looks at the comparative evolution of fertility since 1950 through several synthetic indicators of fertility intensity (average number of children per woman) and timing (age at childbearing, all birth ranks combined). The Mediterranean area is still a fairly contrasted area in terms of fertility levels, but the reduction in the gaps between countries has been clear and rapid since the 1970s. Fertility is still relatively high in some Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries and is decreasing noticeably, while very low levels can be observed on the Northern Shore (Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, etc.). The chapter also presents the most probable fertility trends in this region of the world by returning to the underlying hypotheses. Is the hypothesis of a sustainable convergence of fertility at the level of the replacement fertility rate between the shores foreseeable and, if so, over what time horizon?

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Fertility Intensity and Timing

Doignon,

Blöss-Widmer,

Ambrosetti

et al. 2023

Population Dynamics in the Mediterranean

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Fertility Projections in a European Context: A Survey of Current Practices among Statistical Agencies

Gleditsch

Syse

Thomas

2021

Journal of Official Statistics

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Projection studies have often focused on mortality and, more recently, migration. Fertility is less studied, although even small changes can have significant repercussions for the size and age structure of future populations. Across Europe, there is no consensus on how fertility is best projected. In this article, we identify different approaches used to project fertility among statistical agencies in Europe and provide an assessment of the different approaches according to the producers themselves. Data were collected using a mixed-method approach. First, European statistical agencies answered a questionnaire regarding fertility projection practices. Second, an in-depth review of select countries was performed. Most agencies combine formal models with expert opinion. While many attempt to maximise the use of relevant inputs, there is more variation in the detail of outputs, with some agencies unable to account for changing age patterns. In a context of limited resources, most are satisfied with their approaches, though some are assessing alternative methodologies to improve accuracy and increase transparency. This study highlights the diversity of approaches used in fertility projections across Europe. Such knowledge may be useful to statistical agencies as they consider, test and implement different approaches, perhaps in collaboration with other agencies and the wider scientific community.

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Bayesian Probabilistic Population Projections for France

Cited by 2 publications

References 67 publications

Fertility Intensity and Timing

Fertility Intensity and Timing

Fertility Projections in a European Context: A Survey of Current Practices among Statistical Agencies

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