Abstract:Let (Xn : n ≥ 1) be a sequence of random observations. Let σn(•) = P Xn+1 ∈ • | X1, . . . , Xn be the n-th predictive distribution and σ0(•)=P (X1 ∈ •) the marginal distribution of X1. To make predictions on (Xn), a Bayesian forecaster only needs the collection σ = (σn : n ≥ 0). Because of the Ionescu-Tulcea theorem, σ can be assigned directly, without passing through the usual prior/posterior scheme. One main advantage is that no prior probability has to be selected. This point of view is adopted in this pape… Show more
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.