Bayesian Portfolio Selection with MSV Models

Abstract

In the paper we compare the predictive ability of discrete-time Multivariate Stochastic Volatility (MSV) models to optimal portfolio choice. We consider MSV models, which differ in the structure of the conditional covariance matrix (including the specifications with zero, constant and time-varying conditional correlations). Next, we construct the optimal portfolio under the assumption that the asset returns are described by the multivariate stochastic volatility models. We consider hypothetical portfolios, which consist of two currencies that were the most important for the Polish economy: the US dollar and euro. In the optimization process we use the predictive distributions of future returns and the predictive conditional covariance matrix obtained from the MSV models.