Bayesian networks of age estimation and classification based on dental evidence: A study on the third molar mineralization

Sironi, Emanuele; Pinchi, Vilma; Pradella, Francesco; Focardi, Martina; Bozza, Silvia; Taroni, Franco

doi:10.1016/j.jflm.2018.02.005

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…Sironi et al. have also recently used unrestricted cumulative probit in an analysis of third molar formation. They cite Tutz for a presentation of this method, although Tutz (:249) refers to the unrestricted cumulative model as a “general cumulative model.” The first use of the terms “unrestricted cumulative probit” in the age estimation literature appears to be by Konigsberg and Herrmann , where the method is fully described.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In point of fact, Sironi et al (17) use stopping ratios (this is clear from their Eqs [6] and [7]) but refer to them as continuation ratios. Sironi et al (63) have also recently used unrestricted cumulative probit in an analysis of third molar formation. They cite Tutz for a presentation of this method, although Tutz (50:249) refers to the unrestricted cumulative model as a "general cumulative model."…”

Section: Dental Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

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Status of Mandibular Third Molar Development as Evidence in Legal Age Threshold Cases

Konigsberg

Frankenberg

Liversidge

2018

Journal of Forensic Sciences

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The completion of the third molar roots has played an important role in ascertaining whether individuals may be at or over a legal threshold of age, often taken as 18 years. This study demonstrates that root apex completion in the third molar is relatively uninformative regarding the threshold of age 18 years in a sample of 1184 males, where mean age‐of‐attainment of root apex completion for third mandibular molars is about 19.4 years. This paper also considers the legal age threshold problem for cases where the third mandibular molar is not completely formed, and outlines the use of parametric models and Bayes’ factors to evaluate dental evidence in statistically appropriate ways. It attempts to resolve confusion over age‐within‐stage versus age‐of‐attainment, likelihood ratios versus other diagnostic tests, and prior odds for a case versus the prior density for an age distribution.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Dental Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

Status of Mandibular Third Molar Development as Evidence in Legal Age Threshold Cases

Konigsberg

Frankenberg

Liversidge

2018

Journal of Forensic Sciences

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“…Development of the third molars is mostly classified into Demirjian 31 or Köhler 32 stages, and including all four third molars performs best. 33,34 When a third molar shows a closed apex, it was proposed to also stage the radiographic visibility of the root pulp 35 and/or the periodontal ligament. 36 However, some authors have raised doubts about the reproducibility and applicability of those additional characteristics.…”

Section: Recommendations and Examplesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dental and Skeletal Imaging in Forensic Age Estimation: Disparities in Current Approaches and the Continuing Search for Optimization

Tobel

Ottow

Widek

et al. 2020

Semin Musculoskelet Radiol

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Medical imaging for forensic age estimation in living adolescents and young adults continues to be controversial and a subject of discussion. Because age estimation based on medical imaging is well studied, it is the current gold standard. However, large disparities exist between the centers conducting age estimation, both between and within countries. This review provides an overview of the most common approaches applied in Europe, with case examples illustrating the differences in imaging modalities, in staging of development, and in statistical processing of the age data. Additionally, the review looks toward the future because several European research groups have intensified studies on age estimation, exploring four strategies for optimization: (1) increasing sample sizes of the reference populations, (2) combining single-site information into multifactorial information, (3) avoiding ionizing radiation, and (4) conducting a fully automated analysis.

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“…Examiner may be concerned about the sensitivity of the posterior distribution to alternative prior distributions that fit just as well the prior beliefs. The sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool for investigating the robustness of the posterior inference on prior assignments , Sironi et al, 2018a, Sironi et al, 2018b, Konigsberg et al, 2019.…”

Section: Prior Probability Distribution On the Chronological Agementioning

confidence: 99%

Age estimation of living persons: A coherent approach to inference and decision

Sironi

Bozza

Taroni

2020

Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology

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Bayesian networks of age estimation and classification based on dental evidence: A study on the third molar mineralization

Cited by 15 publications

References 50 publications

Status of Mandibular Third Molar Development as Evidence in Legal Age Threshold Cases

Status of Mandibular Third Molar Development as Evidence in Legal Age Threshold Cases

Dental and Skeletal Imaging in Forensic Age Estimation: Disparities in Current Approaches and the Continuing Search for Optimization

Age estimation of living persons: A coherent approach to inference and decision

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