Bayesian Narrative: Probability, Plot and the Shape of the Fictional World

Abstract

'Probability' seems to be a term forgotten by literary theory. Central to neoclassical and Augustan criticism, probability describes the inferences of readers and their developing discernment of what is likely to happen in a narrative (Patey 1984). This article proposes to bring probability back into the current debates in narratology and literary theory by drawing on recent advances in probabilistic, Bayesian approaches to different aspects of human cognition. Considering the example of Frances Burney's novel Evelina (1778), it presents a Bayesian model for the analysis of narrative through the ways in which the encounter with the text shapes readers' probability judgements. A narrative's 'probability design' cues readers to revise or maintain their expectations for its further development and leads readers to accept outcomes as inevitable that seemed distinctly unlikely at the beginning of the narrative (such as Evelina's brilliant marriage to the aristocrat Lord Orville in Burney's novel). Reconsidering narrative from a Bayesian, probabilistic point of view offers new perspectives on the emotional investments of readers in narrative, as well as plot and verisimilitude.

Trait paranoia shapes inter-subject synchrony in brain activity during an ambiguous social narrative

“…First, narrative is an ecologically valid way to study belief formation in action. Theories of fiction posit that readers model narratives in a Bayesian framework in much the same way as real-world information 13 , and story comprehension and theory-of-mind processes share overlapping neural resources 14 . Second, a standardized narrative stimulus provides identical input, so any variation in interpretation reflects individuals’ intrinsic biases in how they assign salience, learn, and form beliefs.…”

Fears, Apprehensions and Conjectures

“…Hypotheses express Crusoe's emotional state, the reminder of danger operating, as I will show extensively, not only on the strictly cognitive level. On the one hand, Crusoe's previsions define a set of 'probability rules', possibilities that expand the ontological underpinnings of his fictional world (Kukkonen 2014). On the other, they possess emotional resonance, appealing to our empathy.…”

Problems of Tellability in German Eighteenth-Century Criticism and Novel-Writing

“…Drawing on the neoclassical debates (and contemporary cognitive approaches), I have suggested elsewhere that we can think of a narrative's 'probability design' in terms of a feedback loop between the plot and the vraisemblance of the fictional world (that is, what we think its likely state of affairs; see Kukkonen, 2014). As the narrative progresses, readers' probability judgements for the fictional world develop according to the events and the information that the plot reveals.…”