Bayesian Modeling of Travel Times on the Example of Food Delivery: Part 1—Spatial Data Analysis and Processing

Abstract

Online food delivery services are rapidly growing in popularity, making customer satisfaction critical for company success in a competitive market. Accurate delivery time predictions are key to ensuring high customer satisfaction. While various methods for travel time estimation exist, effective data analysis and processing are often overlooked. This paper addresses this gap by leveraging spatial data analysis and preprocessing techniques to enhance the data quality used in Bayesian models for predicting food delivery times. We utilized the OSRM API to generate routes that accurately reflect real-world conditions. Next, we visualized these routes using various techniques to identify and examine suspicious results. Our analysis of route distribution identified two groups of outliers, leading us to establish an appropriate boundary for maximum route distance to be used in future Bayesian modeling. A total 3% of the data were classified as outliers, and 15% of the samples contained invalid data. The spatial analysis revealed that these outliers were primarily deliveries to the outskirts or beyond the city limits. Spatial analysis shows that the Indian OFD market has similar trends to the Chinese and English markets and is concentrated in densely populated areas. By refining the data quality through these methods, we aim to improve the accuracy of delivery time predictions, ultimately enhancing customer satisfaction.