Bayesian functional emulation of CO2 emissions on future climate change scenarios
Luca Aiello,
Matteo Fontana,
Alessandra Guglielmi
Abstract:We propose a statistical emulator for a climate‐economy deterministic integrated assessment model ensemble, based on a functional regression framework. Inference on the unknown parameters is carried out through a mixed effects hierarchical model using a fully Bayesian framework with a prior distribution on the vector of all parameters. We also suggest an autoregressive parameterization of the covariance matrix of the error, with matching marginal prior. In this way, we allow for a functional framework for the … Show more
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