Bayesian Decision Networks for Optimal Placement of Horizontal Wells

Rajaieyamchee, Mohamad Ali; Bratvold, Reidar Brumer; Badreddine, Ahmed

doi:10.2118/129984-ms

Cited by 9 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 20 publications

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“…Once obtaining the test results, the team must decide upon performing a sidetrack, drill up, or drill down. Rajaieyamchee et al (2010) framed and analyzed the decision using influence diagrams. Figure 2 shows the probabilistic interrelationships among the involved decision elements in the model.…”

Section: Value Of Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision Analysis Approach to Valuing Integrated Drilling Operations in the North Sea

Strasunskas¹,

Rajaieyamchee

2010

All Days

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Recently, the petroleum industry has capitalized on remarkable information and collaboration technologies that bring vast amount of real-time data to the decision-makers. The goal is to improve their decision-making processes by integrating technology, people, work processes, and organizations. However, complexity of drilling operations and investment costs put industry in quest for a feasible method to valuate benefits. The prevailing evaluation methods are usually restricted to qualitative approaches, and thus are inefficient as decision aids. The paper presents a decision analytic approach to quantitative valuation of integrated operations.The proposed valuation method is illustrated by a case from improving decisions' quality in drilling operations in the North Sea. Improving the quality of operational decisions requires the drilling team to have access to the relevant information in a timely manner. The relevant information needs to be filtered, aggregated, and fused into decisions; and correspondingly represented to the decision-maker. Availability of new information allows making new decisions, and changing work processes. Adoption of a new tool, conformance to a new work process and trust in aggregated and shared information are typically critical success factors. The method is designed to qualitatively analyze changes in intangible capital and assess technology adoption under conditions of operational and economical uncertainties.The method accounts for information quality improvements and related uncertainties management. In turn, decision analytical part of the method provides a means to relate observable improvements in Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and uncertainties. Operational decisions are formalized using influence diagram, a.k.a. Bayesian decision network.Implementation of digital fields and integrated operations is technologically and organizationally challenging. The functional steps of the established methodology and the decision analytic approach are significant contributions to understanding the quantitative value of these projects.

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Section: Value Of Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision Analysis Approach to Valuing Integrated Drilling Operations in the North Sea

Strasunskas¹,

Rajaieyamchee

2010

All Days

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Value Creation with Multi-Criteria Decision Making in Geosteering Operations

Kullawan

Bratvold

Bickel

2016

Int. J. Petrol. Technol.

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Due to escalated drilling costs, the petroleum industry has been attempting to access the largest possible hydrocarbon resources with the lowest achievable costs. Multiple well objectives are set prior to the start of drilling. Then, a geosteering approach is implemented to help operators achieve these objectives.A comprehensive literature survey has been performed on geosteering case histories, including many cases with multiple objectives. We found that the listed objectives are often conflicting and expressed in different measures. Furthermore, none of the cases from the reviewed literature has discussed a systematic approach for dealing with multiple objectives in geosteering contexts. Without implementing a well-structured approach, decision makers are likely to make judgments about the relative importance of each objective based on previous experiences or on approximate methods. Research shows that such decision-making approaches are unlikely to identify optimal courses of action.In this paper, we propose a systematic method for making multi-criteria decisions in geosteering context. The method is constructed such that it is applicable for real-time operations. Results show that different decision criteria can have significant impact on well success as measured by its trajectory, future production, cost, and operational efficiency.

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A Decision Analytic Approach to Geosteering Operations

Kullawan

Bratvold

Bickel

2013

Day 2 Tue, October 29, 2013

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The technique of geosteering has been widely adopted in the petroleum industry for proper wellbore positioning. The benefits of geosteering have become more pronounced as drilling environments have become more complex. Geosteering-related technologies, such as downhole information gathering tools, real-time data transmission and data-analysis applications, have been continuously and significantly improved to support geosteering decisions. However, the full value of these advancements has yet to be realized. Due to uncertainties in predrilled geological models, information gathered while drilling is applied in making real-time reservoir navigation decisions. To achieve an optimal result requires a series of high-quality decisions regarding well trajectory adjustment. Interestingly, geosteering-related literature does not demonstrate that the industry has applied a logically consistent approach for making geosteering decisions. Common practice as described in the literature does not clearly and quantitatively state measurable objectives, key underlying uncertainties, or relevance between underlying uncertainties and real-time information. Furthermore, it is unclear how a specific geosteering decision is being reached. Lacking of a systematic and transparent framework for supporting geosteering decisions, the current approach is unlikely to result in optimal decisions for placing the well in the best possible location.

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Bayesian Decision Networks for Optimal Placement of Horizontal Wells

Cited by 9 publications

References 20 publications

Decision Analysis Approach to Valuing Integrated Drilling Operations in the North Sea

Decision Analysis Approach to Valuing Integrated Drilling Operations in the North Sea

Value Creation with Multi-Criteria Decision Making in Geosteering Operations

A Decision Analytic Approach to Geosteering Operations

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