Bayesian Confirmation and Justifications

Abstract

We introduce a family of probabilistic justification logics that feature Bayesian confirmations. Our logics include new justification terms representing evidence that make a proposition firm in the sense of making it more probable. We present syntax and semantics of our logic and establish soundness and strong completeness. Moreover, we show how to formalize in our logic the screening-off condition for transitivity of Bayesian confirmations.