Bayesian approach for the reliability assessment of corroded interdependent pipe networks

Application of Bayesian Networks in Reliability Evaluation

“…Hackl and Kohler [53] proposed a DBN-based evaluation methodology for the structural reliability of reinforced concrete structures, focusing on degradation caused by corrosion; the structure of the BNs was constructed by transforming the parameters in corrosion and structural models into the nodes of the BNs and the causal relationships between the parameters of the models into the edges of the BNs. Mokhtar et al [54] developed an evaluation methodology for the structural reliability of corroded interdependent pipe networks by using BNs, whose structure was constructed using the structural relationships of the pipelines and segments. Lee and Achenbach [55] analyzed the reliability of a jet engine compressor rotor blade with a fatigue crack by using DBNs; the structure of the DBNs was based on a fatigue crack growth model, and the parameters in the model were represented by the nodes.…”

“…Using an expert elicitation method, Mokhtar et al [54] established the prior probability table of BNs for a structural reliability evaluation methodology for corroded interdependent pipe networks by using the failure probabilities obtained from a first-order reliability method; the authors specified the conditional probability on the basis of series or parallel relationships. Mahadevan et al [58] proposed a BNbased structural system reliability evaluation methodology and used a branch-and-bound method to construct the conditional probability tables.…”

“…A review of the literature shows that only exact inference algorithms have been used in the field of BN-based reliability evaluation. For example, Mokhtar et al [54] used a junction tree algorithm to assess the structural failure probability of corroded interdependent pipe networks. Lee and Achenbach [55] used a forward-backward algorithm to achieve the exact inference of DBNs for the reliability analysis of a jet engine compressor rotor blade.…”

“…The verification methods are based on sensitivity analysis and well-known scenarios. For example, Mokhtar et al [54] used both types of method as they conducted a sensitivity analysis and behavior tests by simulating known scenarios to verify the proposed BN-based structural reliability evaluation methodology. Using the second type of method, Zwirglmaier and Straub [62] used two application examples to verify the discretization procedures for rare events in discrete BNs for structural reliability assessment.…”

Dynamic risk management of assets susceptible to pitting corrosion

“…Mao's model utilised a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and a Bayesian method for estimating the model parameters [26]. Ait Mokhtar et al [27] used a Bayesian methodology to update corrosion model parameters according to the evolution of environmental conditions. Bhandari et al [20] presented a probabilistic model for predicting the long-term pitting corrosion depth of steel structures in a marine environment using Bayesian analysis.…”